What Trump’s win means for the offshore markets

The US elections are the number one topic today and Norwegian shipbroker Fearnleys believes that, whatever the result, it will most likely be a non-event for offshore drilling but Trump’s win will likely focus the offshore supply market more on oil and gas.

Fearnleys believes that activity, and especially licensing, is likely to be higher with Trump as the next president. What is unknown, according to the shipbroker, is to what extent, what the time frames will be, and what the offshore versus onshore split will look like.

“If the overall focus turns out to be towards higher onshore activity, the effect could potentially be negative for the offshore industry,” the Norwegian firm said.

Should focus however turn more towards offshore, the shipbroker believes that it would face an already tight market, especially for 7th-generation drillships with a sufficient specification for the ultra-deepwater works required in the Gulf of Mexico. Here, as little as one or two incremental units in demand could affect rates significantly.

If Harris won the presidency, Fearnleys believes that there would be just more of the same policies and approach as seen under Biden.

The US offshore supply market has still not recovered from the shift to onshore shale-focused oil and gas production, with the regional fleet utilisation remaining very low. Despite having the highest number of cold-stacked PSVs, day rates have improved significantly and are at all-time highs for PSVs. The Norwegian company claims that this is a result of vessel owners being very disciplined when it comes to reactivating vessels.

With Trump winning the election it is expected that the focus would be on the oil industry and the US Gulf of Mexico. Fernleys does believe that one cannot rule out more offshore wind projects also under Trump, despite negative remarks.

“He is when all comes to all a businessman, meaning offshore wind could be realistic also with him in the Oval Office. As such, the industry could perhaps hope for both offshore oil and offshore wind-related works with Trump,” the shipbroker said.

A Harris win, according to them, would come with no offshore oil focus but rather with increased activity in offshore wind projects along the US east coast.