The Energy Transition Won’t Happen

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The “Energy Transition” Won’t Happen

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Wednesday, July 17th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, the energy transition won’t happen. Very opinion piece from friends over at City journal.org. But as Stu said really. Next up China plans for low carbon upgrades for coal power sector. Interesting. Now that’s a tong full there. Next up electricity rationing at charger stations due to limited charging infrastructure in Europe. Got to love it. Next up nine consequential energy predictions a mid-year 2024 review. This is another great opinion piece from Forbes. And then finally, some breaking news ExxonMobil unveils 30 well drilling campaign for seventh oil and gas project in offshore Guyana. Just an absolutely unbelievable find they’ve gotten going their stool then toss to me. I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets today. And then we’ll cover the AP crude oil inventory guesstimate of what you will hear later today, which is the EIA, the EIA food oil inventory report. As always I’m Michael Tanner joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin. [00:01:31][76.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:32] Hey let’s start with our buddies over there. The energy transition won’t happen. Mark Mills actually wrote this one and it is pretty darn cool. We love Mark Mills. The Foundation. Innovation in cloud technology and artificial intelligence will require more energy than ever before, shattering any illusion that we will restrict. [00:01:54][21.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:55] He pulls no punches. [00:01:56][0.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:57] No, he does not. I love Mark Mills data centers. The information power plant at the center of the cloud revolution are flagged as the primary culprit for this exploding power demand. I’ll tell you, Mark really goes through this, and he lays it out to see what the future holds. We must take a deep dive into the arcane of today’s cloud, the loosely term denoting constellation of data centers, hardware and communication systems. In other words, a very large black hole of energy. [00:02:28][31.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:29] This is a great point he brings here, as one researcher notes. Adding AI to Google search boosts the energy. [00:02:35][6.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:36] Use per search in full. That’s right. So instead of going down to the street and yelling at your neighbor, which takes no energy. Hey, Martha, what do you think? Absolutely. We’re going to save the planet by talking to your neighbors. [00:02:53][16.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:53] Absolutely. And absolutely talk to Martha. Save the planet. Great article by Mark Mills. What’s next? [00:02:59][5.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:00] Let’s go to China. Let’s flop around the corner here to China. China plans low carbon upgrades for coal power sector. They’ve put out trying to get their coal their carbon emissions under control. Biomass plants in China are not financially viable without subsidies. They’re going to subsidize everything else. Why? Because they can manufacture them and sell them to the West. To the suckers in the West. Here’s where it gets funny. They’re now saying that there are low carbon emission projects for coal. Are going to have natural gas plant standards. Wow. How are they going to do that? [00:03:44][44.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:45] You called this years ago when you said, watch out, natural gas will become green energy. I mean, it’s pretty crazy. So what are they planning on doing? China actually plans to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by piloting the firing of power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass, as well as using some CCU as stuff. I mean, I watched the I was watching last night, Batman Begins, and you remember in there they’re dumping all that stuff into the. Well, that’s what I think it will green ammonia. Oh, great. That’s what’s going to get sprayed on me before the scarecrow scares me. [00:04:18][33.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:18] You know, you and I been doing this for four years, and. And one of the things that just cracks me up is the more we use, the further we go to renewables, the more fossil fuels we use. [00:04:32][13.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:33] You said it. [00:04:33][0.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:34] It is happening. And this is another one. The more we go to ammonia, the greener the water gets. It’s goodness. [00:04:41][7.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:43] It’s unbelievable. [00:04:43][0.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:44] All right, let’s go to the next one here. You can’t buy this kind of entertainment on the news desk today. Electricity read at charging stations due to limiting charging infrastructure in Europe. Michael. Physics and fiscal responsibility matter to the grid. And I am not kidding on this story. The fee went into effect July 1st. Germany’s online reports how Dutch charging stations operator at. Agro is imposing a blocking fee on all of its fast chargers because they’re taking too much. [00:05:20][36.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:21] I mean, I mean, what did you expect? [00:05:23][1.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:24] Yeah. According to Lego, this is a quote. The introduction of this fee is necessary to ensure fair and timely access to charging stations. As says reports Blackout News. Allegro explains that charge is necessary to intend intended to prevent EE car drivers from occupying the charging stations for longer than necessary. What a waste of time. [00:05:48][23.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:49] Yeah, and so great you’re going to roll out all of it. I mean, it’s the chicken and the egg concept. We had an explosion of EVs. Watch out. Without thinking about what? Where’s the infrastructure to come from? I saw this great video today on Twitter. I wish I could pull it up. I’m pretty sure it was Bros. Hendrix. It was a video of a guy saying, you know, he had a net. He had a generator on the back of his Tesla and it was plugged into the side. And it’s like, hey, you want to know how you the way you improve your Tesla mileage with fossil fuel? [00:06:16][27.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:17] I saw a I kid you not, I got I was driving down the road and I saw a cyber truck with the plug out, and he had a generator sitting in the back and they were driving down the road. I kid you not. I was wanting to get I was a first. Seeing a Cybertruck out in the middle where I live is like, you know, that’s a rogue elephant. You know what happened there? Kind of cool. And I was wanting to see it. But when I saw I was driving down the road with the plug hanging out, I thought it was like they drove away with, no, you get closer, you can hear the generator running in the trees. [00:06:50][33.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:51] Hey, it’s self-sustaining, right? Sustainable. [00:06:53][2.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:54] Sustainable. [00:06:54][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:55] All right. What’s next? [00:06:56][0.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:57] Nine consequential energy predictions mid-year review from Forbes contributing author David Blackmon going out. Here it is. Let’s go through these real quick. Non Tesla automakers will be pressured by investors to scale back plans EVs even further. [00:07:19][22.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:20] Than easy 100% agree I. [00:07:22][2.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:22] Couldn’t agree more. Tesla is going to do well. Ford shoot himself in the foot and the splatters. They’re going to Chaney themselves in the splatters. You’re going to get all the invest. Renewable energy sources will keep growing, but growth will be tilted to more solar than wind. I said this 4 or 5 months ago. I think we still will see more solar. Wind is quite honestly an abomination in my opinion. [00:07:48][26.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:49] The whales are. The whales are excited to hear that. What do we what’s the next one? [00:07:52][3.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:53] National energy security. [00:07:54][1.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:55] You missed one. The world will use record volumes of coal. Interesting. [00:07:59][4.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:00] I think that and it goes back to my saying that, you know, I’ve been talking about for four years, the more we go renewable, the more fossil fuels we will use. It is a we’re going to do you know the what’s the intel’s Moore’s law I’m going to come up with a law. We’re going to call this the Turley Tanner law. [00:08:20][19.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:20] It’s actually a good one. What’s the next. [00:08:23][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:23] One? National energy security considerations will continue to be prioritized over international climate goals. This one is critical. It is really going to happen because people are tired. I mean. [00:08:38][14.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:38] Next one, U.S. energy policy and its future direction will become a central issue in the fall elections. I disagree a little bit with this one. A why is he? Well, because I think he probably wrote this prior to the assassination attempt in order that I think the shift has focused now a little bit on who do you want. And I think it’s shifted a little bit. I think it’s going to be a issue. Do I think it’ll be the central issue? I’m not sure. [00:09:03][25.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:04] Yeah, I agree a central not the central. [00:09:06][2.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:07] Yes. Next one. Global demand for crude oil will increase between 2 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day for 2024. You know, he he points out that the the IEA only has 700,000 barrels per day year over year. So he’s really going out on a limb. Three Exxon what he thinks it’s going to be the price of crude oil will not rise above $90 per barrel at any point during 2024. Absolutely agree with that. I think we’ve got a better chance of seeing $59 oil than we do $91 oil. [00:09:36][29.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:36] Yeah. What do you think about his next one here? The U.S. domestic rig count? Well, I mean ten you to gradually drop. [00:09:42][5.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:42] I think he’s spot on. I think unfortunately, especially with the not the with with everybody basically assuming former President Trump’s going to win, even if even Cramer would. I mean Cramer was talking about it this morning on CNBC. So maybe we’re wrong. Maybe the inverse Cramer is coming in. But I completely agree. If now’s the time to buy energy stocks if you want. Because by the time November rolls around you’re going to see, you know, drill baby drill the last one. There will be no big spikes in gas. Selene prices during 2024. He’s probably right in this one. Maybe just, you know, he points out, no big spikes, just normal ebbs and flows to be expected during a year in which global crude markets have remained unusually stable. [00:10:25][43.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:26] Here’s where I’m going to say. I’m going to put a caveat and put a dart in this one. If we have anything in the beginning of 2025, because they are eliminating the national gasoline reserves, strategic gasoline reserves out of the East in order to keep gasoline prices down. Once those are gone, yes, we’ll see some volatility. [00:10:50][23.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:51] Yeah, absolutely. All right. What’s next here. We got to move on. [00:10:53][2.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:54] Let’s go to breaking news. ExxonMobil unveils 30 will drilling campaign for seven oil and gas projects project off offshore Guyana. This is the big man Exxon and Hess and China’s sea. Not expecting the hammerhead to produce between 120,000 and 180,000 barrels per day, which is less than the 250,000 from its largest offshore vessels offshore again. But there’s still a lot of oil, dude. [00:11:23][29.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:24] Oh, it’s a huge amount of oil. Hammerhead was discovered in August of 2018. Remember, we’ve still got Hess as part of this will. We’ll find out in early 2025. Probably exactly what’s going to happen. So pretty interesting when it comes to all of this. I mean, there’s just a lot of oil in Guyana. You know why Chevron’s after it. I mean, this is probably the easiest, you know, investment, final investment decision, you know, Exxon could have made. You know, this was probably a formality, especially when you have some stuff, you know, it is going to be less than the 250,000 barrels that that they’re producing over in the Lizza unit. But, you know, they’re going to have a vlcc that’s capable of storing 1.4 to 2 million barrels. So they’re going to be able to get this going. But no, great for I, great for Exxon. And this is, you know, another win for the Stabroek block. [00:12:11][46.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:11] I like it. I like it. All right. [00:12:13][1.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:13] Well we’ll go ahead and quickly cover oil and gas prices here. Guys. Before we do that we’ve got to pay the bills. As always, thank you for checking out the world’s greatest website www.energynewsbeat.com. The best place for all your energy and oil and gas news. All the news and quote unquote analysis you just heard is brought to you by that website too. And the team does a tremendous job making sure it stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business, hit the description below. Links to the Timesstamps links to the articles. Sign up for our Substack the EnergyNewsBeatsubstack.com for tomorrow’s news today. As always, we record this the afternoon before. You can go ahead and take a look. And if you sign up for our Substack, you can see all of the articles that we are going to cover. If you want to beat again at the tip of the spear. www.energynews beat.com. [00:12:59][46.1]

[00:13:01] Overall market’s pretty good today S&P 500 up about 6/10 of a percentage point Nasdaq fairly flat two year yields flat ten year yields flat. And we did see the dollar index again basically flat Bitcoin flat again you know not much movement in the markets outside of crude oil. We saw about 1.14 percentage points trimmed from the opening day. Currently sitting at 8076 at about 4 p.m. here on the hour 68 Brant oil 8392. Only about a quarter of a percentage point. Trimmed off that one. Natural gas up a little bit, $1.39 percentage points, but still down relative week over week. We’re still sitting at $2.18. Yikes. You know really where prices are coming into play today? Two things. One, you know, Chinese demand doesn’t look great. You know, third straight days of losses. You know, we’ve got, you know, some interesting data coming out of China. The world’s second largest economy only grew 4.7 percentage points in that date, ranging April through June, according to official data, which is the slowest rate since quarter one of 2023 and missing a Reuters forecast about 5.1. It also slowed from the previous quarter 5.3 percentage point print. So again, protracted property downtown, the property downturn that’s going on there. They’re entering their own version of 2008. We’ve got a good quote from Dennis Kistler, senior vice president of trading over there. Okay. Financial weaker economic data continues to flow from China. Has continued. Government support programs have been disappointing, with many of Chinese refineries cutting back on weaker fuel demand. We also did see the API’s weekly crude oil inventory guesstimate of the EIA print, which you’ll find at about 930 today. It actually dropped by about 4.4 million barrels, which is pretty good. Pretty big draw relative. So that’s sort of supported prices in the afternoon, even though we’ve seen things settle out still at $80. So decent draw expected again at 930. You will hear those numbers. So we’ll see how they compare. Not much. Everything’s kind of all quiet on the Western Front do we got a great recording tomorrow on Devin snapping up Grayson Mill. Everyone is kind of just gearing up for earnings at the beginning of August. It’s going to be busy. [00:15:05][124.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:05] It’s going to be a busy, busy time. And you know when the whales are happy, when professors find out why they’re dying. [00:15:11][6.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:13] Well, we’ll get him some other way. Don’t worry, Alfie, we’ll get him another way. Trap. Hey, so what else you got to do? [00:15:19][5.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:19] I’ll tell you. Just everybody hug your family, hug everybody, and we will keep the energy news rolling your way. [00:15:26][6.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:27] Absolutely, absolutely. So all right, guys, with that, will it get out of here? Get back to work. We appreciate everybody checking us out here on this gorgeous Wednesday July 17th for Stuart Turley I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow folks. [00:15:27][0.0][880.7]

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