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The timeline for establishing the next European Commission looks increasingly tight: the question is not whether it will be late – it will be – but how much pressure lawmakers will be under to greenlight new commissioners.
A political holdup in Slovenia is preventing the government from submitting the nomination papers of its candidate for commissioner, Marta Kos. The gridlock in Ljubljana could make even the belated deadline of 1 December extremely difficult to meet.
Perhaps more importantly, the tighter the scheduling becomes, the greater the pressure will be on members of the European Parliament (MEPs), to approve the commission candidates they are charged with scrutinising.
Officially, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is due to reveal how she wants to divide responsibilities amongst the next crop of commissioners on Tuesday (17 September).
That would allow the European Parliament to schedule hearings – probably in mid-October – the committees that will decide whether or not to approve each commissioner for the relevant job. For example, the budget committee will decide whether to approve the candidate for budget commissioner.
But von der Leyen’s presentation is at risk of being delayed for the second time, because the Slovenian Parliament’s EU affairs committee did not, as expected, deliver its required opinion on Kos on Friday (13 September). Unless the committee meets on Monday, von der Leyen will be forced to postpone her announcement.
Slovenian law requires the committee to give its opinion by 24 September, so the holdup in Ljubljana should be resolved by then at the latest – provided the government does not collapse.
In theory, that means von der Leyen’s unveiling of the Commission portfolios would be delayed by a week or so, at worst. Sources in the EU institutions say that makes the 1 December target difficult, but not impossible.
In addition to von der Leyen’s plan, the European Parliament also needs some paperwork – such as declarations of interests – from the nominees before it can schedule the hearings.
Each committee in the legislature then needs around seven weeks to go through all the necessary steps before it can hold a vote, such as the submission of written questions, as well as the hearings themselves.
But that seven-week estimate only holds if there are no other unexpected delays – and if each candidate is acceptable to each committee.
There is really no reason to predict – or even to wager – that all of the candidates will get through their hearings unscathed and with their candidacies intact.
For example, there is serious doubt about whether MEPs will allow Hungarian nominee Olivér Várhelyi – the current commissioner for EU enlargement – back into the commission. If Várhelyi is rejected, the EU would have to wait for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – who enjoys creating a stir in Brussels – to pick a new candidate.
Additionally, the centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group – the second largest political bloc in the parliament – has expressed disquiet about rumours that von der Leyen will give a top vice-presidential role to Raffaele Fitto, the nominee of Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.
While the S&D is choosing its words carefully – stopping short of ruling-out allowing Fitto into the Commission – von der Leyen’s allocation of job titles will have an impact on the candidates’ prospects in the hearings.
The average European is unlikely to care whether the new European Commission will take office in December, January or later. For one thing, the current one can continue in caretaker-mode to cover a reasonable delay, which is what happened during the last changeover in 2019.
But the longer the new Commission is delayed, the harder it will be for the EU to respond decisively to whatever unexpected crisis might descend on Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, struck during the first few months of the current Commission’s term.
Perhaps more importantly though, increased time pressure can induce rash behaviour. The forthcoming hearings in the European Parliament will decide who gets to make policies that will affect 450 million Europeans for the next five years. Few will benefit if the job is rushed.
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The post The Brief – Commission Crunch appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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