June 23

Shell’s LNG Canada achieves first LNG

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ENB Pub Note. The Update from LNG Prime is below, including information on LNG’s impact on their last earnings statement.

The latest Shell earnings report and related sources don’t provide a specific figure for the exact LNG shipment volume expected from the LNG Canada export facility in 2025, nor do they detail the precise financial impact on Shell’s 2025 earnings.

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LNG Canada, Shell’s joint venture (40% stake) in Kitimat, British Columbia, is set to produce 14 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) at full capacity, with first LNG shipments expected by mid-2025. Shell’s equity share of this capacity would be around 5.6 MTPA (40% of 14 MTPA), but 2025 volumes will likely be lower due to the facility ramping up. Sources indicate the facility is testing equipment and could start exports as early as late June 2025, suggesting partial-year operations. No specific 2025 shipment volume is confirmed, but initial output might be a fraction of the full capacity, potentially 2-4 MTPA for Shell’s share, depending on startup pace.
On the financial side, Shell’s 2024 Annual Report notes LNG Canada’s expected internal rate of return at around 13%, with “significant, long-life, and resilient cash flows.” However, no exact 2025 earnings impact is quantified. Shell produced 29 million metric tons of LNG and sold 66 million tons globally in 2024, with LNG Canada’s contribution expected to boost future sales. The project’s low-cost AECO price index (96.6 Canadian cents per MMBtu vs. Henry Hub’s $3.746) and proximity to Asia make it economically attractive, potentially adding millions to Shell’s earnings, but precise figures depend on global LNG prices and shipment volumes. For context, Shell’s 2024 LNG sales generated significant revenue, but market volatility and lower 2025 prices (e.g., Asian spot prices at $13.50 per MMBtu) could temper impacts.
Without specific data, a rough estimate might peg Shell’s 2025 LNG Canada earnings contribution in the low hundreds of millions USD, assuming 2-4 MTPA at $5-10 per MMBtu margins. This is speculative and hinges on operational success and market conditions. For precise numbers, check Shell’s Q2 2025 results or future guidance, as they may update projections closer to the facility’s startup.

 


 

“LNG Canada has safely achieved its first production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and remains on track to load first cargoes by the middle of 2025,” the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson did not provide further details.

LNG Canada is Canada’s first large LNG export facility.

One of the largest private investments in Canadian history, the plant will initially produce 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) LNG for export.

With a proposed Phase 2 expansion, Shell and its partners plan to double the terminal’s capacity to 28 mtpa.

Besides operator Shell, other partners in the project include Malaysia’s Petronas, PetroChina, Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation, and South Korea’s Kogas.

Contractor JGC Fluor is constructing the first phase of the project.

Last month, Shell’s finance chief, Sinead Gorman, said during the company’s earnings call that the company remains on track to deliver the first LNG cargo from its export terminal in Kitimat in the middle of this year.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan also noted during the call that the first train will start up, and “then there’s a lag until you get to the second train.”

This was followed by the arrival of the 173,400-cbm LNG carrier, Maran Gas Roxana,in Kitimat with a cargo of LNG from Australia.

The cargo was used for the start-up and commissioning process in advance of LNG Canada’s operations.

Recently, there have been reports on LNG carriers heading to Kitimat to pick up some of the first cargoes produced at the LNG Canada facility.

This includes the 174,000-cbm LNG carrier GasLog Glasgow, chartered by Shell, and the 174,000-cbm Puteri Sejinjang, chartered by Petronas.

GasLog Glasgow was located on Sunday in the North Pacific Ocean, and it appears to be heading to Kitimat, according to its AIS data provided by VesselsValue.

On the other hand,  Puteri Sejinjang is expected to arrive in Kitimat around July 6.

Source: Lngprime.com

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