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Toronto single-family prices -15% from peak, condos at multiyear lows. Calgary & Quebec City reach new highs.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Home sales across Canada dipped 0.7% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, and remain about 10% below the 10-year average for this time of the year, as the housing market “hits pause,” according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today, despite the Bank of Canada’s two rate cuts in a row. Sales declines in Calgary and the Greater Toronto Area were mostly offset by gains in Edmonton and Hamilton-Burlington, CREA said. Compared to the beaten-down levels of July last year, sales were up by 4.8%.
New listings ticked up by 0.9% in July from June, the sixth month of increases over the past seven months. The number of properties listed for sale was up 22.7% from a year ago, but still about 10% below the historical averages for this time of the year. So both supply and demand are about 10% below 10-year averages. Supply remained 4.2 months in July, up from 3.3 months in July last year.
The Canada MLS Home Price Index for single-family benchmark properties edged up 0.1% in July from June, seasonally adjusted, but was down by 4.1% year-over-year, and down by 14.7% from the peak in February 2022 (all prices in Canadian dollars):
Greater Toronto Area, single-family MLS Home Price Benchmark Index:
Month-to-month: +0.1% to $1,318,600; essentially unchanged for four months in a row, and below October 2021
From peak in February 2022: -15.0%
Year-over-year: -4.7%, the third month in a row of year-over-year declines (-4.1% in June, -2.6% in May)
Greater Toronto Area, condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.1% to $672,700, just below where it had been in November 2021; and essentially unchanged for the sixth month in a row at this multiyear low.
From peak in February 2022: -12.3%
Year-over-year: -5.4%, the 18th month of year-over-year declines out of the past 19 months, and the biggest since May 2023.
Hamilton-Burlington metro single family benchmark price (in the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”):
Month-to-month: +1.0% to $918,200, below August 2021
From peak in February 2022: -18.6%
Year-over-year: -3.2%, the fourth month in a row of declines, and the biggest.
Hamilton-Burlington metro condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -1.5% to $529,800, back to November 2021.
From peak in February 2022: -16.3%
Year-over-year: -4.5%.
Greater Vancouver single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.2% to $2,019,500, about where it had been in January 2022, and roughly flat for 10 months
From peak in April 2022: -2.4%
Year-over-year: +1.6%, smallest gain since July 2023.
Greater Vancouver condo benchmark price:
Month-to-month: unchanged, at $762,500, a hair above May 2022.
From peak in October 2023: -2.0%
Year-over-year: -0.3%.
Victoria, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.4%, to $1,136,600, below November 2021
From peak in April 2022: -10.2%
Year-over-year: -2.1%, second year-over-year decline in a row.
Ottawa, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.8% to $725,200, roughly back to October 2021
From peak in March 2022: -9.3%
Year-over-year: -0.3%, second year-over-year decline in a row.
Calgary, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.5% to new high of $680,700
Year-over-year: +10.3%.
Montreal, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: -0.4%, to $619,600, below February 2022.
From peak in May 2022: -2.4%
Year-over-year: +2.2%.
Halifax-Dartmouth, single family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +1.6% to $563,200
From peak in February 2022: -0.3%
Year-over-year: +3.3%.
Edmonton, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +0.7% to $452,400
Matched the prior peak in April 2022
Year-over-year: +9.1%
In the 17 years since the peak of the 2007 bubble, the index is up 15%.
Edmonton’s epic condo bubble and subsequent bust 15 years ago, and what it looks like afterwards: Despite the price surge since May 2023, the index is still down 19% from the peak in June 2007.
Month-to-month: +0.1% to $193,900, first seen in December 2006.
From peak in June 2007: -19%
Year-over-year: +11.1%
Quebec City Area, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +1.2% to $416,000, a new high
Year-over-year: +9.2%
Winnipeg, single-family benchmark price:
Month-to-month: +1.0% to $377,900
From peak in March 2022: -0.6%
Year-over-year: +4.5%
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The post Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, July 2024 – Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria, Ottawa, Calgary, Montreal, Edmonton, Quebec, Winnipeg: Market “Hits Pause” Despite 2 Rate Cuts appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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