Is the dollar here to stay?

Green parties were on track to lose seats in the European Parliament elections, provisional results showed Monday, sparking concerns that the bloc may be on the brink of scaling back its climate policies. The left-leaning Greens/European Free […]

Russian Oil Tanker Does Secret Cargo Switch Near Singapore to Dodge US Sanctions

 

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Wednesday, June 12th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, the myth of the inevitable rise of the Petro Yuan. Dun dun dun. Next up, don’t bet against the dollar. See the themes there? Stu? You’re up. Next up, Europe’s climate ambitions thrown into doubt as green vote collapses. Next up, Russian oil tanker to secret cargo switch near seeing appear to dodge U.S. sanctions. So we love a good Dark Fleet story. And then finally in the news segment Cop29 to post Azerbaijan since natural gas demand rise despite quote phase out plants. Sue will then toss. I will just quickly cover what happened with oil, gas and natural gas prices. We are above $3 for natural gas. We’re back baby. We are back in business and then we will cover quickly. What happened to the API has a guesstimate of what you will see today in the crude oil inventory reserves. We will cover all that in a bag of chicks chips. Folks, as always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:28][72.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:28] Hey, let’s start with our buddies over there with the right, then the China, the myth, the inevitable rise of the Petroyuan. I’ll tell you, Michael, I have been, you know, with BRICs and the advent of our stupidity in our management of our country. I’ve been saying it’s been coming, and this article is quite the opposite. Let me give you a couple of highlights here. Astonishing as it is, quote, the narrative is an illusion. First, if you believe in conspiracy theories, the introduction of the Petro one and the ensuing collapse of the Petro dollar would be the first domino, potentially weakening the entire whole U.S. financial system. Very serious. A redrawing of the global economic map, the backdrop to global wars and crisis. Now, the author of this article goes on to say that it’s not going to happen and that the Petro dollar is going to hang on, and that the Petro line is not going to because the agreement with Riyadh and China mentioned nothing in there about Petro on. I missed that totally. MDAs did not want the Petro on. So I’m I’ve got to the last line in this article. Ironically, the only new Petro currency to emerge of late has been the Durham of the United Arab Emirates India to using it to settle some oil transactions with Russia, bypassing U.S. sanctions. Also the ruble, which is not mentioned in this article, as well as some others, but this guy is saying that the petrodollar is here for a while. What do you think? [00:03:15][107.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:16] Well, it’s it’s I think it’s it’s going to be a lot harder than we think to migrate off the, the, the, the Petro dollar from standpoint. There’s a lot of business already wrapped up in that. I do think the Petro yarn is coming slowly. It’s all about the supply chains and how, you know, we’ve talked at nauseam about how the supply chain tried shifting to exclude the United States. When that happens, there’s no need for the dollar if you’re never going to go back to the United States. And as more isolated nations get as Russia, Russia has shown you can do it. You can have a stable economy and not have access to any of the western banks and all that jazz. [00:03:56][40.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:57] So the Swift system, yes. [00:03:58][1.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:59] It’s not needed anymore. So no, I, I’m a firm believer that yes, the Petro yan is coming, but it may not even be the Petro one. It’s just going to be the Petro, not dollar. [00:04:09][9.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:11] Dollar. How cool is that, Michael? I like the way you phrase that the Petro not dollar. Let’s go to the next one Michael. And don’t bet against the dollar and I this one I thought was an outstanding article as well too. I am again a very not fan of the current administration. A couple of big points. The Bretton Woods conference 80 years ago, when the U.S. dollar became the center pillar of the world economy and the U.S., economic. And for eight decades, we witnessed the predictions about the U.S. dollars coming demise. But almost from the beginning, the debate about the future dollar has missed the mark. I think there are some things in here. The U.S. Treasury had a horrible bond sales last week. Yellen was like she if Scooby Doo had a horrible haircut, he’d be Janet Yellen. I mean he she went last week. They there’s nothing. Nobody wants to buy the U.S. debt. [00:05:16][65.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:17] It’s in much like the last one once that it wants, like the last article. Once that happens and things starting to get traded without the dollar, it’s the inevitable downfall where we just become like another currency, and that’s fine. The British pound exists. The other currencies exist. We don’t have to be number one. Then it calls into question the 40 trillion in debt that we have, then gets it. We need the strong dollar to support the debt. So there’s an unwinding that could happen. [00:05:45][27.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:45] It is. [00:05:46][0.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:46] You listen to Stu too much. You’ll think it’s right around the corner. [00:05:49][3.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:50] But this is a good check for me to sit there and saying, quit saying it’s going to happen tomorrow. But listen to this last paragraph. Let me read you the author’s last. This is from foreign policy. The move towards dollarization remains marginal but meaningful and moving for the dollar to lose its place. It would take a series of policy failures in Washington, which happens daily, that I just say that. And for the dollar’s detractors to create alternatives that have appeal not only in the orientate and during and state led economies, but globally. So the last paragraph really cuts into it. [00:06:29][38.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:30] Yeah, I know absolutely. What’s next. [00:06:31][1.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:32] Okay. Let’s go to Europe’s climate ambitions thrown into green doubt as green vote collapses. Boy, I’ll tell you, you can’t buy this kind of entertainment because Michael what that what normally happens is things filter over to the U.S. as they, after they happen in the Europe and green parties were on track to lose seats this week. The far in in fact France. Merkel and they actually canceled the the smaller end of the house across the continent. Frustrated farmers. Boy, they had their cannons going off. We covered a little bit about this yesterday. Let’s talk about this. Boss Eickhout, lead candidate for the Green Party, said support for the far right parties across the bloc could jeopardize Europe’s progress on climate actions. Quote, I would say the global green race is on, and you see that in China. You see that in the United States. So this means Europe really needs to step up its action. But people cannot afford it anymore. Michael. [00:07:38][66.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:39] Yeah. No, it’s it it truly is. I mean, the amount of amount it cost to actually go green is crazy. I hope there’s people working on those calculations of the cost to actually go green, but truly do it. I mean, yeah, everything’s close. It’s not just car, it’s close. No gas grill, you know, wood fireplaces, all that jazz. You gotta calculate all of that. [00:08:02][23.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:03] Oh, hey, on Twitter, I just saw this a little while ago. A lady got an increase of $200 for having an EV, for having a Tesla, because they’re now charging her wait tax in Texas. So the cost to go green your insurance goes up because it could burn your house down. And it can also way more for the car. So anybody that has an EV gets get stuck with another $200 on their on their tag this year. [00:08:31][28.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:32] Yeah that’s that’s crazy. What’s next. [00:08:35][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:35] Let’s go to the Russia tanker story. You got to love me a dark fleet. What Russia tanker. Does secret cargo switch near Singapore to dodge U.S. sanctions? I got take a lot of this one. This was a really good article out of Bloomberg, and the author did a good job on it, but she said, oh, this was like the first one. No, Russia has 500 tankers in the dirt fleet, and that’s how they’ve increased 73% over the last three months of crude being sent out, avoiding sanctions. So I got tickled at Bloomberg on this. However, if you go in and you take a look, they’ve got it down to a science on how they found this. This was in Singapore, not in Club Med like you and I talked about last week, and that it was two Russian ships are floating in there. [00:09:29][53.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:29] What do we what is this? This is what do we called a it’s not club Singapore. We gotta we’ll have to call this something funny. [00:09:35][5.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:36] Yeah, yeah. Singing in Singapore I don’t know, but it was in Singapore. [00:09:39][3.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:40] That’s a good one. I like that. [00:09:41][1.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:41] But you know, the when you sit back and take a look at it, I applaud Bloomberg for getting the story out there on that. But it does fit in along on that. Venezuela and Iran first discovered the Dark Fleet. Then Russia says, hold my beer. They really escalated up. Now LNG tankers are appearing in the Dark Fleet. So Russia is now building its LNG Dart fleet tankers now. [00:10:10][29.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:11] Pretty crazy. All right. What’s next? [00:10:12][1.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:13] One last piece in this article. They did not really understand that the way that a dirt fleet operates is on insurance. Sanctions operate against insurance. So that’s these are self-insured is how they they go around. All right. Let’s go to Cop 29. Host Azerbaijan sees natural gas demand rising despite phase out plans. You know, Michael, you and I have been talking about for the last 3 or 4 weeks now that natural gas is going up huge. And the reason is because the I demand a demand for natural gas. We can’t do this without long term guarantees that our gas will be needed. Then, long said. What will happen after 2040? For instance? Pipeline gas this is a quote cannot be delivered in big volumes without long term sales contracts. Boy, you got that right. I mean, Michael, have you ever seen such long LNG contracts? There’s 25 year LNG contracts. [00:11:18][65.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:19] Well, because you’re getting closer and closer to what energy really is is the energy security standpoint of that. It doesn’t make sense to necessarily build these plants out, but you also want to secure gas long term, 25, 30 years. [00:11:32][12.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:32] Exactly. And in fact, you know, some of the story I talked about yesterday was building gas plants like you wouldn’t believe. [00:11:40][7.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:41] Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So we’ll you know. [00:11:43][2.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:44] I always. [00:11:45][0.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:45] 28 Cop 29 in Azerbaijan. [00:11:46][1.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:48] Isn’t that fun. Yeah. Well when you go to Dubai and they come out and go, long live. [00:11:53][5.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:53] Oil, I’d rather who’s who wants to go to Azerbaijan? [00:11:55][2.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:57] Not me man, you know. Anyway. Hey, hey, I had a good learning day. Well, if you go back and take it, it’s. Hey, the dollar Petro dollars. Not quite dead yet. I’m going to pull a monty Python out meme on that one. [00:12:10][13.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:11] It’s not quite dead yet, but. All right, guys, well, we will quickly cover the crazy rise in natural gas prices. But before we do that, we have to pay the bills. As always, thanks for checking us out on the world’s greatest website, energynewsbeat.com. The best place for all your energy and oil and gas news still in the team. Do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit the description below and find all the links to the articles that we used and the different timestamps. They may be off by about 30s just because of the some of the ads that we are running. But go ahead, check that out. You can also check us out. Dashboard.energyNewsbeat.com energynewsbeat.com I mean I mean pretty quick you know stuff for me still me really do the you know we did see oil prices rise substantially. [00:13:02][51.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:03] Overall markets were up about a quarter of a percentage point. Nasdaq up about three quarters of a percentage point to a ten year yields fairly flat dollar index flat, up about a 10th of a percentage point. Bitcoin down three percentage points down below 70,000 67,297 as of the recording. Crude oil up a quarter of a percentage point 7090. That was after a pretty big rise that we saw yesterday, which I, which I missed. So crude continues to, to rise mainly on continued strong global demand forecast. The API would go and throw this piece of news up here. Miss Producer. We did see API guesstimate of the crude oil inventory, reserves there guesstimating about a 2.3 or what do I have here yet? -2.4 million barrel draw. So we’ll see. You’ll know at about 930 Central Standard Time what the E or what the EIA says. But they do have the EIA also released their short term energy outlook today. Where they went ahead and say that world oil demand is going to be about one, supposed to increase by about 1.1 million barrels per day. So now the IEA has turned has turned demand growth for oil upward. Interesting interesting that they do that for the remaining 2024. Sort of brings them in line as expected. They also officially say that in 2024 we’re going to see a US oil output. So there’s not a not a lack of crude oil on the market, that’s for sure. Natural gas prices soar today, mainly off the continued outlook for hot temperatures $3.15 as we sit here about 5:00 here, Central Standard Time. So we’ll see. You know, as you’re listening to this on Wednesday, we’ll have kind of rolled over the nightly session. And that price action will continue to bring it one way or the other. But all you can say is natural gas is beginning to make a headwind. I think you’re going to start seeing, you know, companies look, you know, Chesapeake Southwest or are they going to get back to turning? They had a lot of, you know, Wells that they used the fancy term for turn in line. They delayed their, quote, turning lines, which means we are just not going to it’s even different than complete. We’ve completed it. We’re just not drilling the plugs out yet. So you really haven’t done anything to the wellbore yet. So they’re going to, you know, keep that. You know, see how much they can work down to be interesting to see natural gas production rise. But, you know, that’s really all I saw on my desk today. Stu, what should people be worried about? Is they. [00:15:22][139.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:23] Well, I’ll tell you, you know, you sit back and take a look at the banking numbers. We’re still tracking those 63 banks that are in trouble. That’s going to be happening here pretty quick. Also, the trading desk, you’ll be able to see that we are starting to source crude jet fuel. And it’s starting to roll. People are asking for it. [00:15:43][19.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:43] So yeah people are people are. So I will we’ll go ahead and let everybody get out of here. We appreciate you guys checking us out here on the World’s Greatest podcast. But we will. Yeah, we’ll we’ll keep on keepin. We’ll keep our ears to the ground and we will keep you informed. And. Yeah, it it’s crazy. Stuff’s going out there, Stu. So, enjoy, guys, for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:15:43][0.0][903.0]

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