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Iran’s crude oil exports have dramatically slowed in October as the country braces for possible retaliation following its October 1 missile attack on Israel. With Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities a topic of discussion, Iran’s exports dropped to around 600,000 barrels per day in the first 10 days of the month—about a third of recent months’ volumes.
Typically, 5-8 tankers would load during this period, but this month only 3-4 vessels were loaded, according to Vortexa oil risk analyst Armen Azizian. Iran has moved several empty tankers from Kharg Island as a precaution, satellite images and tanker tracking company TankerTrackers have shown, further stalling exports.
“The first 10 days has been very slow compared to what we usually see,” Azizian said, as cited by Argus. “Normally, over this period, we see an average of 5-8 tankers load ? a mix of VLCCs and Suezmaxes. But so far, we have only seen just 3-4 load.”
Despite strong export levels in recent months, with a peak of 1.83 million barrels per day in September, October’s figures are expected to fall far short. Even if normal loadings resume, Iran is unlikely to exceed 1.35 million barrels per day by the end of the month.
This decrease highlights the vulnerability of oil exports during geopolitical tensions.
Most analysts agree that OPEC producers with spare capacity—namely the UAE and Saudi Arabia—would be able to make up for any deficit left in the oil markets by Iran’s export disruption.
Meanwhile, Iran has made offers to China—one of Iran’s only crude oil outlets post sanctions—to sell its crude for an even narrower discount to Brent, increasing its price by as much as $1 more per barrel.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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