India LOVES Russian Oil

[[{“value”:”

Daily Standup Top Stories

States are acting to prevent their own electricity crisis

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:44 – States are acting to prevent their own electricity crisis

04:08 – Top Indian Refiner Seeks Buyers of U.S. Crude as Russian Shipments Rebound

06:53 – Freeport LNG Plant Runs Near Zero Consumption for Fifth Day

09:32 – World Leaders Urge Restraint as Israel Mulls Iran Response

12:03 – Why Oil Markets Are Calm Despite Iran-Israel Tensions

15:39 – Markets Update

21:42 – Outro

Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and Twitter

Follow Michael On LinkedIn and Twitter

ENB Top News

Energy Dashboard

ENB Podcast

ENB Substack

– Get in Contact With The Show –

Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, states are acting to prevent their own electrical crisis. No novel idea. Next up, top Indian refiner seeks buyers of U.S. crude as Russian shipments rebound. Next up, this is a classic Freeport LNG plant runs near zero consumption for fifth day. Womp womp womp. Next up, world leaders. Restraint as Israel mulls Iran response. Just some spooky stuff, guys. Next up why oil markets are calm despite Iran Israel tensions. Really fascinating to look at. I think what everybody is wondering, hey, I thought shouldn’t have oil prices gone to the moon because of this stew will cover that. He will then toss it over to me. I will quickly cover what’s going on in the oil and gas markets, specifically where oil prices landed today. We will also check in with the API’s crude oil estimate of the EIA crude oil inventory numbers, which you will hear today as you listen to this. And then finally Cambridge, goes ahead and withdraws their proposal to combine Silver Bow with Cambridge, Texas Gas. So the the public battle comes to an end. We will dive into some of those details and all here on this episode. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:44][89.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:44] Hey, let’s roll around to the States. More power to the states. Maybe, states are acting to prevent their own electricity crisis. This is really coming around. And, Michael, Miss producer, if you could just flash this on the screen here, there is this picture of the states. And when you take a look at the states, there’s red and and dark blue or it’s not really a political map, but what this map is critically showing is blue is where the coal is used. The red is where coal is the largest dispatchable source of energy. There’s about 6 or 7 things that are coming up in this thing. Now take a look at that map. You have Idaho, you have Oregon and California that are in deep doo doo. And that gray up in the northern, east Vermont still uses coal. The rest of them, anything over, Maine and beyond is not, so. [00:02:44][59.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:45] I want to give a shout out to the, the America’s Power.org. They’re the, the people that put this together. No. Super interesting. I mean, we’ve known this for a while. Coal is the premier dispatchable power. Bill, I think it’s interesting we talk about this Kentucky legislation, Senate Bill 349. I’m reading here from the article to establish a commission. It will review the adequacy of the state’s electrical supply and provide advice on whether the retirement of existing power plants would undermine the reliability of Kentucky’s energy grid. At least somebody is thinking exactly. [00:03:19][33.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:20] Like the EPA is expected to finalize. This is also in the article three new rules in the coming week that will cause premature retirement of coal fueled power plants, even though coal generates at least half the electricity in seven states and at least 20% in the other ten, only nine states gray below use no coal at all. And that is not true, because, California imports from the two border states, electricity. California. I just visited with Ronald Stein this morning. California’s the largest importer of electricity in the United States. So they do import coal. [00:04:02][42.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:03] All right, let’s go abroad here. What’s next? [00:04:05][1.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:06] Oh, I mean, I just get all worked up there. Let’s go to the top. Indian refiners seeks buyers of U.S. crude as Russian shipments rebound. This one’s kind of wild, Michael. And because India’s private refiner reliance is now selling their, WTI crude because they would rather have the heavier Russian oil, because Russia is now drilling like a bad dog and sending it all out there. Amid issues with payments and stricter U.S. sanctions on Russian crude exports. The tanker fleet operators have come forward. Indian refiners recently ramped up purges of other grades similar to the skull. Russia’s goal WTI Midland is one of those crude. So, you sit back and take a look, before offering the crude reliance also had tried to sell in Asia some of those cargoes they are ramping up their Russia, imports now. They they’re so hungry. Michael, I don’t think this is a really a. Warning sign. They’re still going to buy everything they can. [00:05:12][66.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:13] Yeah, I mean, they’re doing exactly what they should be doing for the Indian people. I mean, yes. Is it is it enriching Russia? But at some point you have to look out for yourself. I think that’s the point of why everybody is questioning all the money we’re sending to Ukraine and overseas, like we’ve got problems here. Can we focus? And once we figure out us, can we worry about somebody other than they tell you that in therapy, don’t try to fix somebody else. You got to fix yourself. I think think somebody somebody said that. It is interesting what they’re doing here. This little shell game of, buying more Russian crude, even though the sanctions have gone up, taking U.S. crude, selling it on the open market, it’s it’s going to be interesting. I mean, you know, they point out that WTI Midland that crude stack India said to import in April its highest volumes from the US in 11 months. [00:06:00][47.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:01] Wow. Now, here’s one thing that that is happening is we’ve talked about the Dark Fleet and this this article brings up the problem with the Russian, tankers. We’re now seeing Turkey in yesterday show when you were out on assignment, having way too much fun. The turkey is now looking at becoming a natural gas hub. Well, how are they doing that? Their import facility is now taking on Russian and Chinese LNG that has been bought from Russia, and it’s transferred into the gray market, if you would. It now becomes gray market, natural gas beyond sanctions. It’s a turkey is gonna make some big bucks. [00:06:50][49.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:50] We got to talk Freeport. This is hilarious. [00:06:52][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:53] Freeport LNG plant runs near zero consumption for the fifth day. Michael. It has operated, since January on only two of its three plant plants called trans working in March. That fell to one. Holy smokes. They’re down. That fell to one point 3,000,000,000 cubic feet per day, and then to 700, million, cubic feet per day. Wow. Said its trading two liquefaction unit will be shut down totally. Train one will be taken down imminently as it expects inspections and subsequent repairs. They’re having some serious problem. [00:07:36][43.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:37] Yeah. This is you know, this is running this. They’re running it like Stalag 13 or something. You know, you got Colonel Cleek over there. You know, who do we have running this plant? This has been out this plant. We’ve been talking this plant for a year and a half now, a year and a half. We’ve been talking about report LNG. You know, they come back off line after the, after they had some major, major work to be done. We can’t stay open during the freeze. It’s unbelievable. Strike. I know this cracks me up because I’ll be I’ll be the first to admit I was on the train that once Freeport was up and running, you would see gas prices going down tremendously. Oh it has if gas prices have gone down without Freeport even being on line. So I took a swing and a miss there, but it’s hilarious. They can’t get that online. [00:08:22][44.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:22] Oh, no, this is this is I don’t know that I could do a better job, but on the other hand it is pretty funny. [00:08:28][5.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:29] I can’t believe, I can’t believe, I mean, this can take. [00:08:33][3.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:34] So if you 2 to 2.4 go ahead. If you’re accusing them of having Colonel Klink running it and he’s sitting there with his monocle, and I’m sitting there holding up one piece of my glass over my eye. So, now is who is Sergeant Schultz is what I want to know. I see nauseam, who is Sergeant Schultz in that outfit? [00:08:54][20.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:55] The EIA not looking for gas demand. That’s who it is. But no, that plant draws between 2.2 BCF per day and 2.4 BCF when fully operational. As you mentioned, those two trains were down. Train three was also, taken offline, but it’s now back online. It got taken out, when some of those motors were damaged during the free. So it’s just. [00:09:20][25.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:21] It’s it’s crazy. [00:09:22][0.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:22] It’s a mess. What’s next? [00:09:23][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:24] Oh, man. You know. Hi, honey. I’m home permanently. They’ve they’ve shut the plant down, and I now lost my job. World leaders urge restraint as Israel mulls Iran’s response. Michael, and this goes along with the next article. Why oil markets are calm despite Iran’s. I want. [00:09:47][22.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:47] You to rant on this for a bit. [00:09:48][1.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:48] I’m a little weirded out, dude, honestly. I mean, you and I have talked about this for years, ever since you and I, we’re going to have our own tanker fleet. We’re going to fill oil in our own because as soon as you know, something happens. I don’t get this. And Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday it does not seek further escalation in the Middle East yesterday. Today and yesterday afternoon I ran I Isreal is now saying they are going to  attack. Now if they attack their nuclear fleet. What does that mean? Do they attack their, oil oilfields in their export facilities? That’s something different. Are they going to, attack something else? All of it? I have no clue. But, yesterday I covered there’s about five different analysts. Are you there, Michael? Are you. [00:10:41][53.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:42] I’m listening. Okay. [00:10:43][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:43] There’s five different analysts, Goldman Sachs and all these guys, and they all came out with different answers. And so why I think everybody in this is my personal opinion, why everybody is calm right now is because nobody has any idea how bad it could get. I mean, think about it. We had Iran throw a record number of missiles. They were shot down by the Iron Dome and 1% two people were killed, Michael. And was because one of the Iranians, two Iranian missiles blew up in Iran. They misfired, so they got zero people. One young girl was hurt. That’s pretty bad for 330 missiles. That’s bad. [00:11:28][45.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:29] Yeah. I mean, the the quote from the Israeli government spokesperson, David Mansour, quote, we reserve the right to do everything in our power, and we will do everything in our power to defend this country. It can’t be fun to look up in your skies and see the I mean, the fact that you have to fire off the Iron Dome is probably very scary, and I can only imagine what those people are going over there. [00:11:50][20.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:50] Our hearts and prayers go out there. [00:11:51][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:51] You walk outside the scene. I mean, you know, you see $1 billion just being exploded over the top of your, country is is is never good. You know, I mean, there’s a lot of misses. 300 missiles is big. I think from from oil standpoint. I think a lot of this price action was already priced in. Remember I rang Telegraph the 72 hours prior and we saw the run up based upon that, the rumor. What do you say? Buy the rumor. Sell the news. There’s a reason for that. You know, I think people were woefully with, you know, with, with with call options on on Sunday night were woefully missed. And you know, we’re not woefully but we woke up unfortunately not too pumped because, you know, oil was pretty much flat because again, I mean, I’m not I don’t want to get into the geopolitical analysis of this, but it seems pretty obvious that Iran wanted everybody to know what happened so that nobody came back and really took them out because they’re nervous that they could actually get wiped off the face of the earth. [00:12:49][57.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:49] So there’s there’s three things people need to look at. Iran sent out video of Chili’s fire that was devastating and said, this is what we did do Iran. And I mean, I, Israel. So let me rephrase it. Say that again. Iran put out on their TV the, film of a forest fire saying this was a result of their thing to their citizens. So that’s a a big thing going. Whoops. And then you have Biden, you have Mary Marjorie Taylor Greene coming out and saying that Biden approved Iran and told them it was okay to bomb Israel. I’m like, and there’s about four other people that have done that as well. So Biden is saying don’t. And then he’s saying, okay, and then he’s telling Israel, don’t retaliate, and we’re not going to be there. I don’t know what he’s thinking. I don’t think he knows what he’s thinking. [00:13:48][58.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:49] That’s what I mean. I think it’s, it’s going to be interesting. I do think, you know, again, to try to tie it back to what’s going on in energy. I think a lot of this stuff has been priced in. I think. [00:13:59][10.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:00] Yes. [00:14:00][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:00] The next move, though, you’re not going to be able to price in the next move because I don’t think it’s going to be telegraphed. I don’t think there’s going to be a 72 hour head warning, right. We’re going to do this. [00:14:11][10.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:11] And then, by the way, as soon as it does and nobody’s dead, Iran goes, we’re done. Really? [00:14:18][6.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:19] No kidding. [00:14:19][0.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:20] Hey, so I’m over, done here. But the one thing I want to let people know to look for is, some copper prices and other critical minerals are going up because of additional sanctions on Russia. So check those out. And there’s additional problems in the critical minerals. I’m trying to rundown. [00:14:39][19.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:40] Of the minerals you’re speaking my you’re speaking my language. But appreciate it Stu. We’ll go ahead. And before we jump into finance we’ll go ahead and pay the bills here. Guys, as always appreciate you guys checking this out. www.energynewsbeat.com. The best place for all of your energy and oil and gas news. All the news and analysis you just heard is brought to you courtesy of the world’s greatest website. Energynewsbeat.com. Stu in the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the. When it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Check out the description below in your podcast platform to go ahead and see all the links to the articles, timestamps and all the rest. We appreciate all of the contributors who who contribute to all the articles that we’re able to cover here. You can also check out dashboard.energynewsbeat.com The best place for all your data and energy news combo. We’ve got a really great, cool V2 that we’re working on it. And there’s also, again, a lot of great stuff we have in the works. We appreciate all of our listeners,. [00:15:38][58.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:39] But let’s let’s go ahead and jump over the finance guys. Mean, as we just mentioned, oil fairly flat today as kind of the current economic headwinds that we’re seeing, here at home are kind of counteracting those, kind of geopolitical tensions and specifically some of the pricing in data. So Reuters, you know, would, would, would, would tell you that, you know, mainly a lot of the investor sentiment, at home, mainly from mainly from data that we saw roll out last week. I mean, remember they were stronger than expected inflation that we saw, last week, which most likely means the Federal Reserve is not going to go ahead actually cut rates. Remember there was three rate cuts baked in for this year. If there’s only two, that’s going to substantially again hurt the market there. So I think those concerns weigh a little bit more heavily to the already priced in. You know here’s the quote from Powell. The recent data, he gave this quote at the Wilson Center in Washington, I think today or yesterday. But the recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. Yikes. You know what that means. [00:16:46][67.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:47] In. [00:16:47][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:47] Rate cuts? Probably. [00:16:48][0.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:50] Two rate cuts. [00:16:50][0.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:50] Snyder. Matador Economics Rising interest rates are killing markets as it appears the fed are stuck in the mud while the economy continues to inflate. I think Tim Schneider, if I’m not mistaken, somebody forward me forwarded me a newsletter from him. I think he’s a local Dallas guy. We got to get him on the podcast. Tim Schneider, Matador Economics shadowed him. I definitely remember getting a, getting an email from that guy. So love being quoted there. In routers, again, geopolitical setups can swing the market either way. You know, the other indices we saw the S&P 500, drop about quarter of a percentage point. Nasdaq actually stayed fairly flat. It was up about 0.04 percentage points. We did see two year yields jump 1.14 percentage points ten year yield slightly outpacing that at 1.15 percentage point dollar index on the rise up about one tenth of a percentage point. We have seen bitcoin, drop substantially, down to $62,000. That’s only about a 1% on the day, but about, on a four day span as we, as we move closer to the having date, as always, crude oil currently sitting at 8531 Brant Oil, 9020. And natural gas sitting there at $1.72. Opened on a on a on a slightly colder than expected weather report open here about opened about, 1.8 percentage points up. So we love to see that I’ve really got two things here. We go ahead and flash this up on the screen. Mitch. Producer. We did see yesterday U.S. API, guesstimate of the, crude oil Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which you were here at 10 a.m.. 1030, I think either 930 or 10, central standard time, API’s guest meeting, about 3.03 a million barrels, build in that, strategic or, in the crude oil inventories outside of the petroleum reserve. So obviously whatever happens with that is excluded in these numbers. Forecast it was 2.4. So market didn’t really move much. But as you remember last week, we had a there was expected draw and we saw builds gonna be very interesting tomorrow. As we check on in on this, later today and as we come to you tomorrow, to compare kind of what happened in and what effect that had on prices. Last thing I have Kim Ridge withdraws proposal to combine Silver Bow with Kim Ridge Texas Gas top line headlines silver has this is a quote out of the PR release. Silver bow has refused to enter into good faith negotiations or undertake substantial due diligence to assess the best path forward for unlocking value on behalf of all shareholders, necessitating the need for fresh perspective in the boardroom. Cambridge to focus on electing three quite independent, highly qualified independent nominees two silver bows, nine person staggered board at the 2024 annual meeting. They are, in a sense, calling off the proposed, you know, threat by merger, as I like to say, of taking Silver Bow and trying to combine them with Cambridge, Texas Gas, which, if you recall, is basically Laredo Petroleum. They would, you know, that combination would make one of the larger pure play Eagle Thirds, which has some attractive nature to it. I think it’s, interesting, though, that that Silver Bow has a really bad rap in the industry. And I say this, you know, unfortunately, there’s a lot of people you talk to. It’s not just Cambridge that believes this. They’re, you know, what are. They say good management, good numbers. You know, I think this is, unfortunately, this is one where management has very does not have it is very limited in their exposure to the health of the business by their not but their, you know, their again it’s all insiders. There’s no independent. They’re all salaried and and and there’s nothing against salaried executives. But your executives don’t have skin in the game. You tend to there’s a disillusionment of incentives because if you’re purchased, if you’re merged, if you’re taking over and you’re a salaried employee, I mean, that could be your job if they don’t like you. But if you have a nice change of control package, your you have some sweat equity in the deal. You’re more willing to a value. And I think that’s what I think really that’s what Cambridge is getting at is you know, the top two, you know, the top two minority shareholders Kim Ridge and Repsol Capital sort of saying the same thing. So you know, I think I think what’s going on at the executive level of Silver Bowl, something’s going to have to give one way or the other. And it’s going to be interesting to follow this proxy season because can we just usually pretty good at this stuff. They’re able to strong arm I mean they’re behind a lot of the deals that we’ve seen recently in, in the past. And we can name off, you know, ten, you know, 10 to 20 of them really in the past to, you know, 2 to 4 years. Point is, I mean, it’s interesting they weren’t successful in this I think has a lot to do with where gas prices are right now. I think if gas prices were higher, they’d probably be able to be able to do a little bit more, more work. I mean, Eagle Ford, yes. You have a, you know, a decent amount of oil down there, but a lot of liquids or there’s a lot of gas down there too. So, you got to make sure you contend with that. Oh, you got anything else? Pretty day stew? [00:21:43][293.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:44] Just watch out for minerals and weaponization of sanctions. [00:21:47][2.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:48] Well, with that, guys, we’ll let you get out of here, get back to work, or start your day. We appreciate you checking us out on the world’s greatest website and podcast. Energy news Beat for Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow folks. [00:21:48][0.0][1266.8]

– Get in Contact With The Show –

The post India LOVES Russian Oil appeared first on Energy News Beat.

“}]]