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ENB Pub Note: Interesting article from Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter about the swift ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While I do not agree with everything that Andrew writes, I do like his overall messaging. It is also very clear that President Trump was not happy with both Israel and Iran when they both started launching bombs and missiles in the last few hours. He even dropped an F-bomb on live TV, letting the world know he meant business, and they had better stop fighting. You can subscribe to Andrew on his Substack here.
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Nobody saw it coming.
Iran and Israel surprised the world by agreeing to a ceasefire precisely at the point when most observers expected their war to spiral out of control. Trump’s decision to bomb several nuclear sites in Iran and his subsequent flirtation with regime change there convinced them that he was about to escalate American involvement in the conflict regardless of whether Iran retaliated against regional US bases or Israel carried out a false flag provocation to justify this. Here’s why they all agreed to a ceasefire instead:
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1. Iran & Israel Inflicted Unacceptable Damage To One Another
The Mainstream Media hitherto claimed that Israel inflicted tremendous damage to Iran while the Alt-Media Community hitherto claimed that Iran inflicted tremendous damage to Israel, and for once, both of them were right even though they dishonestly denied each other’s claims. The reality is that Iran and Israel inflicted unacceptable damage to one another after less than two weeks of strikes. Neither was therefore able to last much longer, thus inevitably leading either to a serious escalation or a ceasefire.
2. The Trump Administration Didn’t Want Another Major Regional War
The escalation scenario was averted solely because the Trump Administration didn’t want another major regional war in West Asia, which could have accelerated the US’ hegemonic decline as well as prevented it from “Pivoting (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China. It therefore likely told Israel that it wouldn’t have its back in that event while threatening Iran with outsized (nuclear?) retaliation if its nearby bases were attacked, thus deterring escalation from both and making a ceasefire possible.
3. Trump Unexpectedly Defied The Israel Lobby & Neoconservatives
Many observers concluded that Trump’s decision to bomb Iran signaled his complete capitulation to the Israel lobby and neoconservatives, but they couldn’t have been more wrong. Far from surrendering to their demands for another “shock and awe” regime change war, which could have involved boots on the ground and even nukes, he was somehow able to get Israel to stop bombing Iran, likely by threatening to hang it out to dry if the conflict escalated. Iran then followed suit and the ceasefire entered into effect.
4. The US Spun Its Bombing Of Iran As A Strategic Success
Opinion is mixed about whether the US’ bombing of several nuclear sites achieved its goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear program or at least pushing it back for many years, which could knock Iran out of the geopolitical game, but the US was still able to spin it as a strategic success. This gave Trump a “face-saving” exit ramp for de-escalating the conflict by speculatively pressuring Israel to stop its bombing campaign and then getting Iran to go along with it to avoid the major regional war that he feared.
5. Trump Is Totally Obsessed With Receiving The Nobel Peace Prize
And finally, Trump’s ego probably played a significant role in his decision to coerce Iran and Israel (each in different ways) into agreeing to a ceasefire since he’s totally obsessed with receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, which he hopes that he’ll be awarded as a result. Even though he played a role in sparking the conflict by letting Israel bomb Iran on day 61 of his 60-day deadline for another nuclear deal, all that could be conveniently forgotten by the committee if the ceasefire holds and leads to a lasting peace.
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The ceasefire might not hold, however, in which case the US might not fully support Israel’s resumed bombing campaign if West Jerusalem is to blame. The US might also pursue regime change in Iran via indirect means even if the ceasefire holds. In the best-case scenario, the ceasefire might lead to a lasting peace through another nuclear deal, which would necessitate Russia’s involvement (such as removing excess nuclear fuel from Iran). Putin would therefore deserve the Nobel Peace Prize too if that happens.
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The post Five Reasons Why Iran & Israel Agreed To A Ceasefire appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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