Dark fleet still growing by 10 tankers a month

Broker BRS has provided an update of the size of what it terms as the grey tanker fleet, ships suspected of carrying oil linked to Iran, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea or Russia.

Despite slowing, the grey fleet is still growing by around 10 tankers a month, according to BRS, and now stands at a total of 850 ships, representing 9.1% of the total tanker fleet. For ships of 34,000 dwt and above, the total stands at 764 tankers, equating to what BRS stated in a markets update was an “extraordinary” 13.8% of the global 34,000 dwt or above fleet. 

So far this year only four deepsea tankers have been demolished, which should make 2024 the lowest year for tanker scrapping since at least 1990, according to BRS, who attributed this dearth of demo candidates largely down to the fact grey fleet tankers cannot be demolished easily.

“Cash buyers who purchase tankers to be demolished in breakers’ yards on the Indian subcontinent appear reluctant to purchase tankers from the grey fleet,” BRS noted. 

“All told, and even considering today’s lacklustre crude and product tanker markets, we reiterate our view that any clumsy regulation of the grey tanker fleet remains the most significant upside grey swan for tanker markets over the coming year,” BRS suggested, arguing that a significant pollution incident or even from a humanitarian situation such as grey fleet tankers being abandoned if they cannot be disposed of otherwise could lead to a greater crackdown on the shadow fleet. 

“Therefore, as a new year turns, and as the grey fleet ages and continues to expand unabated without an appropriate release valve, it appears evident that the risk from the grey fleet is continuing to rise which, in turn, makes its eventual regulation even likelier,” BRS predicted. 

Splash reported yesterday on accidents involving two laden Russian product tankers (pictured) – both in excess of 50 years old – leading to significant spills in and around the Kerch Strait.