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The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure, has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with far-reaching implications for Taiwan’s national security. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, lies at the heart of this crisis. Any disruption in this vital waterway could destabilize energy supplies to Asia, particularly Taiwan, which relies heavily on imported energy. Compounding these concerns are Iran’s significant oil exports to China and emerging signs of Chinese military posturing around Taiwan, raising fears that Beijing may exploit regional instability to advance its territorial ambitions.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Energy Lifeline
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil and oil products, representing about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, passed through the Strait in 2023. Additionally, around 20% of global LNG trade, or 90 billion cubic meters annually, transits this route, primarily from Qatar and the UAE. This makes the Strait indispensable for energy-hungry economies in Asia, including Taiwan, China, Japan, and India.
Taiwan, which imports nearly all its energy, is particularly vulnerable. Over 40% of its crude oil imports and a significant portion of its LNG supplies, primarily from Qatar, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption—whether from Iranian retaliation, such as blockading the Strait, or broader regional conflict—could spike energy prices and cause supply shortages, threatening Taiwan’s energy security and economic stability.
Iran’s Oil Exports to China: A Strategic Lever
Iran plays a pivotal role in global oil markets, producing approximately 3.6 mb/d of crude oil and 0.8 mb/d of condensates, with seaborne exports averaging 2.1 mb/d in 2025, most of which go to China. China is Iran’s largest oil customer, purchasing over 75% of its oil exports, which account for roughly 15% of China’s total oil imports. This trade, valued at approximately $2 billion per month, is a lifeline for Iran’s sanctioned economy.
The Israel-Iran conflict has raised concerns that Israeli strikes could target Iran’s oil infrastructure, such as the Kharg Island terminal, which handles nearly all of Iran’s oil exports. While Israel has so far avoided such targets, any damage could force China to seek alternative suppliers, potentially tightening global oil markets and driving prices higher. Analysts estimate that a prolonged closure of the Strait could push Brent crude prices to $120–$130 per barrel, a scenario that would strain Taiwan’s economy, which relies on stable energy costs to fuel its semiconductor industry and export-driven growth.
Moreover, China’s economic dependence on Iranian oil gives Beijing leverage over Tehran. Analysts suggest that China would pressure Iran to avoid closing the Strait, as such a move would disrupt not only Iran’s exports but also China’s broader oil imports from the Gulf, which constitute a significant portion of its energy supply. However, this dynamic also underscores China’s strategic interest in maintaining regional stability, which could influence its actions elsewhere, including around Taiwan.
The following post on X is not news, but an interesting opinion.
”CHINA IS PREPARING FOR AN INVASION OF TAIWAN”
The US will soon be involved in the conflict against Iran.
China will see this as a major provocation.
Why?
China is Iran’s biggest oil client, with the country’s private refiners buying most of Iran’s sanctioned crude.
The… pic.twitter.com/FJD2ggEeeq
— WORLD AT WAR (@World_At_War_6) June 17, 2025
Taiwan’s National Security at Risk
Taiwan’s reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for energy imports makes it acutely vulnerable to the Israel-Iran crisis. A disruption in oil or LNG flows could lead to energy shortages, higher costs, and inflation, undermining Taiwan’s economic resilience. The island’s strategic petroleum reserves, estimated at 74 days of consumption, provide a temporary buffer, but prolonged disruptions would strain these reserves, particularly for LNG, where Taiwan lacks dedicated storage facilities.
Beyond energy, the crisis has broader national security implications for Taiwan. The conflict has heightened global geopolitical tensions, diverting U.S. and international attention to the Middle East. This could create a window of opportunity for China, which has long claimed Taiwan as its territory and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification. Recent reports indicate increased Chinese military activity around Taiwan, including frequent air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). In May 2025, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported a record 66 Chinese military aircraft and 14 warships operating near the island in a single day, signaling heightened pressure from Beijing.
Analysts speculate that China may view the Middle East crisis as a distraction that weakens U.S. focus on the Indo-Pacific, potentially emboldening Beijing to escalate its actions against Taiwan. A Chinese blockade or military operation around Taiwan could disrupt shipping routes in the Taiwan Strait, through which 50% of global container traffic and significant energy shipments pass, further compounding Taiwan’s energy and economic vulnerabilities.
China’s Strategic Calculations
China’s response to the Israel-Iran crisis is shaped by its energy security and geopolitical ambitions. Beijing has condemned Israel’s strikes and called for de-escalation, positioning itself as a potential mediator to protect its economic interests in the Middle East. However, a prolonged conflict could disrupt China’s oil imports, prompting Beijing to tap its strategic reserves, estimated at over three months of oil imports, or accelerate diversification to suppliers like Russia and West Africa.
At the same time, China’s growing assertiveness around Taiwan suggests it may exploit global distractions to advance its regional goals. The Brookings Institution notes that China’s “traditional approach in the Middle East” is under strain, and a weakened Iran—Beijing’s key regional partner—could push China to bolster its influence elsewhere, including through coercive actions in the Taiwan Strait. This scenario is particularly concerning given Taiwan’s critical role in global semiconductor supply chains, which are vital to both China and the West.
Global and Regional Implications
The Israel-Iran crisis underscores the interconnectedness of global energy markets and geopolitical flashpoints. For Taiwan, the immediate risk is an energy supply crunch, but the longer-term threat lies in China’s potential to capitalize on regional instability. The U.S., Taiwan’s primary security partner, has signaled its intent to maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain actively patrolling the region. However, a simultaneous crisis in the Middle East and Taiwan Strait could stretch U.S. military resources, complicating its ability to deter Chinese aggression.
Other Asian nations, such as Japan and India, also face risks from a Strait of Hormuz disruption, given their reliance on Gulf oil and LNG. India, for instance, sources over two-thirds of its oil and nearly half of its LNG through the Strait, and any closure would hit its economy hard, potentially prompting competition with Taiwan for alternative supplies.
Conclusion
The Israel-Iran crisis, centered on the volatile Strait of Hormuz, is rapidly evolving into a national security challenge for Taiwan. The Strait’s role as a conduit for 20% of global oil and LNG flows makes it a linchpin of Taiwan’s energy security, while Iran’s oil exports to China tie the crisis to Beijing’s strategic calculus. With China intensifying military activities around Taiwan, the island faces a dual threat: energy disruptions from the Middle East and the risk of Chinese opportunism in the Taiwan Strait. As global attention remains fixed on the Israel-Iran conflict, Taiwan must bolster its energy resilience and strengthen alliances to navigate this precarious moment.
Sources:
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The Guardian
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The New York Times
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The War Zone
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CNBC
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DW
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Euronews
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Atlantic Council
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Lloyd’s List
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Live Mint
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International Crisis Group
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Brookings Institution
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Firstpost
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Al Jazeera
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S&P Global
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TRT Global
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Türkiye Today
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BBC
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Wikipedia
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Times of India
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The New Arab
The post How the Israel-Iran Crisis Is Swiftly Becoming Taiwan’s National Security Crisis appeared first on Energy News Beat.
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