April 1

Peak Permian: Timing uncertain

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Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:35 – Norway’s Oil Fund to Buy Stakes in Offshore Wind for $1.5 Billion

03:08 – WTI Soars Nearly 3% on Trump’s Russia, Iran Threats

04:02 – US federal judge blocks offshore lease sale over impact on Rice’s whales

06:11 – Peak Permian Production – Is it near or is it past already?

09:02 – U.S. natural gas consumption set new winter and summer monthly records in 2024

10:47 – Outro


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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.


Stuart Turley: [00:00:00] The Permian is not quite dead yet, almost like the Monty Python skit that is always there, but when you sit back and take a look, we may slow down. And looking at the exact timing, there’s a couple things that are in here. Remember, I just talked about how much we import versus how much produce. And in recent years, production is around 6.3 million barrels per day according to U.S. Energy, the EIA. and approximately $6.6 million by the end of 2025. [00:00:30][30.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:39] Hello everybody. Welcome to the Energy Newsbeat podcast. My name’s Stu Turley, president of the Sandstone Group. Today’s the Daily Standup for April 1st. Better buckle up. We got some great stories here. Michael’s out on an assignment making money. Looking at Norway’s oil fund to buy steaks in offshore wind for $1.5 billion. Next story up. WTI soars nearly 3% on Trump’s Russia-Iran threats. U.S. federal judge blocks offshore lease sale over impact of Rice’s whales. You gotta love a good story on the whales. Peak Permian production. Is it near or is it past already? and US natural gas consumption sets a new winner in summer monthly records in 2024. That record is going to get broken. Just buckle up. So let’s start with our first story here. Norway’s oil fund to buy stakes in offshore wind for 1.5 billion dollars. Just want to make sure that everybody is remembering that Norway one time several years ago was going to shut down their entire natural gas fields and they pretty much did a good job of that. The poster child of natural gas for the rest of the EU. So you gotta love that. The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, Norway, 1.8 trillion dollar oil fund will buy 49% of two offshore wind farm developments in RWE for a total of 1.5 billion dollars or 1.4 billion euros. That’s pretty impressive, but it’s an offshore wind farm of Germany. The RWE of Germany has just pledged to slash capital expenditures for low carbon energy projects by 10.8 billion amid the mounting uncertainties about the renewable energy policies and profitability. Quote, the company is responding to regulatory uncertainties and constraints in the supply change geopolitical risk and a higher interest rate. So I’m not really sure why you would do this, but when you sit back and take a look, it’s a good thing for them to do since this is a German wind farm in trouble and it is a nice thing to do. But I don’t know that I would invest in offshore wind right now. [00:03:08][149.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:08] Taking a look at the next story, WTI soars nearly 3% on Trump’s Russia and Iran threats. As a recent data, the United States consumes approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day. So the two geopolitical plays are in play. The first seafire deal over the Russia-Ukraine and the second focuses on the Iran’s nuclear program. You know, I think it’d be a good thing for Iran not to mess with our president. He seems a little bit irritated on this one. And I’ve got more information coming out on the Ukraine-Russia war, and as you’ve heard us say, President Trump does not have all of the information he needs in order to end this war. He needs some new blood. in his negotiation team there. [00:04:01][53.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:02] Let’s take a look at this next story here. US federal judge blocks offshore lease sale over the impact on Rice’s Whales. This is a huge deal, and I know Michael will kind of laugh about it, but I’m kind of glad that a federal judge has blocked an oil and gas lease sale in Gulf waters off of the coast of Louisiana after finding authorities did not take into account. the impact of new offshore drilling on the highly endangered rice’s whale. The ruling from a judge in the U.S. District Court of Columbia will require the Bureau of Ocean and Energy Management to conduct additional environmental reviews. I’m okay, absolutely okay, and if this is going to endanger the whales, if it’s oil and gas, I don’t mind. Let’s take a break and take a look at it. I want the same things done to the wind farm. If the wind farms are going to harm them, we want to judge to stop them as we’re too. So let’s not just say that this is only for oil and gas. Let’s take a look at this for a wind farm as well on the offshore because the offshore wind vibrations are horrific. So and I want to give Steve Reese a shout out. Steve Reese, I’m looking forward to doing an interview with Steve. And we’ve got some great things coming around the corner, but Reese Energy Consulting. is our sponsor for the daily energy newsbeat podcast and I mean they have got a great training program they are great trainers and if you are buying or selling a natural gas or oil you will want to reach out to east reese energy consult and get in there with them and say hey wait a that I want to build an AI data center. we’re your engineering firm to make sure that you get the right amount of power for that data center. They’re the right ones. Steve is working on quite a few data centers right now and they are guaranteeing that those things will be run. [00:06:10][128.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:11] So let’s go to the next story here. Peak Permian production. Is it near or is it past already? And when I wrote this article, I kind of took spin off of the old, uh, never mess with a death with a Sicilian when death is on the line and or never go in against a Sicillian when death is in the line, Vizzini from the Princess Bride movie. The Permian is not quite dead yet, almost like the Monty Python skit that is always there, but when you sit back and take a look we may slow down and looking at the exact timing there’s a couple things that are in here. Remember I just talked about how much we import versus how much we produce. And in recent years, production is around 6.3 million barrels per day, according to the US energy, the EIA, and approximately 6.6 million by the end of 2025. This is out of the Permian. So when you take a look, and we had the articles come out about Scott Sheffield saying, hey, wait a minute, we may have already hit peak tier one asset. Well, it’s about also the geological formation and how much water it is cost more to pull out in some of the geologic formations in here. In the art, a great article from oil price.com, and I would butcher her name and I apologize, Ms. Parzoka, I’m sorry for butchering your name, but in there are some bullet points. In the Permian gas to oil ratio, GOR has steadily risen from 34% to total production in 2014 to 40% in 2024. Pressure from within the reservoir declines as more oil is brought to the surface. Another ratio is also suggestive of the wells operating cost drilling wells. Produced water, water to oil ratio in the perineum is much higher than other basins. The other basin’s produced water will also drive cost. There cannot be U.S. energy dominance at $50. It’s just simply not going to happen. So here’s a great quote. One basin does not define a country’s energy wealth, but it can impact the decision making along the way. A great man, Stu Turley, once said that. Oh, that was me. When you sit back and take a look at this, even though they may be forecasting peak Permian oil juries out, I wouldn’t hold anything against either technology, finding more, deeper, whatever the case may be. I’m not ruling the Permian out yet, but at what price? You always have to ask that price on there. [00:09:02][170.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:02] Our last story is from the EIA today. U.S. natural gas consumption set new winter and summer monthly records in 2024. You take a look at the charts that are in this article and the EIA really did a pretty good job on this. Weather has been a significant effect on natural gas consumptions patterns and natural gas consumption peaks before the winter and the summer. and our LNG exports are f***ed up. flattening out that demand because it’s always going to be a demand increase. And I’m really going to see how fast they can get the Alaska LNG pipeline and export facilities on because that’s really going to help out as far as exports to the Asia market. I think that that is going to be absolutely beneficial. Annual consumption in the combined residential and commercial sectors declined by an average of 2% last year compared with 2023, despite a cold January. But while consumption in the electric power, which accounted for 41% natural gas consumption, increased by 4%. That’s kind of interesting. So I think as we get more businesses and more manufacturing online, you’re going to see an increase. You’re going to see an increase to the facilities in out of the Haynesville when you’re looking at the Permian and the Haynsville feeding into the Gulf areas there for export in the LNG facilities. That’s going to be some really big impact and I’m pretty bullish on pricing for natural gas from here on out. [00:10:46][103.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:46] So with that like subscribe Share this, read this to your pets, have an absolutely wonderful day. And as we get geared up for Tuesday, this would be Tuesday, but if we get up, get geared for tomorrow’s stories, it’ll be interesting to see what President Trump has on his plate for his big announcements on the April 2nd. for the tariffs and how those will be impacting. I do want to give a shout out to the UK and the EU. I am very saddened by the news that they are putting the front runner for the French runoff in jail for trumped up charges there. It’s almost like what happened to President Trump and you sit back and take a look at The left is pulling all the stops out. NATO is in trouble. The EU is in trouble. And the UK is in trouble. Not a good time for those folks and we’ll be praying for you. Buckle up and have an absolutely wonderful day. [00:10:46][0.0][635.9]

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