[[{“value”:”
Daily Standup Top Stories
Germany on course for longest post-war recession – data
GDP contracted by 0.2% in 2024 due to soaring energy costs and weak exports, official figures show The German economy contracted for a second straight year in 2024 for the first time in more than […]
The EU’s Trump-China dilemma
BRUSSELS – Relations between China and the EU are worsening – and could rapidly deteriorate when Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday. The pledge by the self-proclaimed “Tariff Man” to impose […]
US sanctions Europe’s largest nuclear plant
The US Treasury Department has added the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest such facility in Europe, to its blacklist of Russian companies and individuals. The six-reactor ZNPP has been under Russian control since […]
EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026
In-brief analysis January 15, 2025 EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2025 In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through […]
Oil Rises as Crude Inventories Continue to Draw
Crude oil prices moved higher today, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory dip of 2 million barrels for the second week of the year. The change estimated by the EIA compared with a modest draw of […]
EIA raises Henry Hub price forecast for 2025
This is $6.4 percent higher than $2.95/MMBtu in the December 2024 STEO. EIA said in the new outlook that the Henry Hub spot price “generally rises over the next two years.” “We expect the spot […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:09 – Germany on course for longest post-war recession – data
02:52 – The EU’s Trump-China dilemma
05:03 – US sanctions Europe’s largest nuclear plant
05:23 – EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026
08:10 – EIA raises Henry Hub price forecast for 2025
09:36 – Oil Rises as Crude Inventories Continue to Draw
10:39 – Outro
Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and Twitter
Follow Michael On LinkedIn and Twitter
– Get in Contact With The Show –
Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley: [00:00:11] Hello, everybody. Welcome. The Energy News Beat daily Standup. My name’s Stu Turley, a president and CEO of the Sandstone Group. Today is January 16th. It’s coming up on the inauguration. We’re all excited. But let’s get to these stories here. Germany on course for the longest postwar recession. Holy smokes, the EU is Trump China dilemma. The next story after that, U.S. sanctions Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. Boy. The Biden administration is at it again. EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026. And another EIA story, EIA raises the Henry Hub price forecast for 2025. And then oil rises as crude inventories continue to draw. Got a lot of crazy stories going on here. [00:01:09][58.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:09] So let’s start off in Germany. Germany on course for the longest postwar recession. GDP contracted by 0.02% in 2020. For doing this, soaring energy costs and weak exports. You’ve heard of f around and find out. Well, they did. They went through and put in all the green energy policies and they are now having a lower GDP again. The Germany economy contracted again for a second straight year in 2024 for the first time in more than two decades, according to the country’s federal statistics office. And they, following a 2.02% drop after dropping .03 percent in 2023. Buckle up. It’s going to get worst. These include increasing competition for the German export industry on key sales markets, high energy costs and an interest rate that remains high, an uncertain economic outlook. They have absolutely dug a gigantic hole that they’re not going to be getting out of in 2025 or 2026. We’re about to see some of their elections go haywire. And if they don’t get cheap Russian natural gas, they are going to have some problems. We’ve already talked about the fact that they’ve been buying Russian uranium, but yet their nuclear plants have been shut down. So buckle up for Germany. I hats off to them and what you vote in matters. [00:02:51][102.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:52] Let’s go to the EU. Trump China dilemma. Relations between China and the EU are worsening and could rapidly deteriorate when Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday, pledged to the self-proclaimed tariff man to impose steep duties on all U.S. imports may have prompted Brussels and Beijing to ease trade ties to limit the potential impact of their export oriented industries. This is very interesting when you consider without a doubt the EU China relations is getting worse, said Tobias Ernie, a senior policy analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations. And I think it’s recognized by both sides. The whole world is just coming out of a horrific leadership of the Biden-Harris administration. And I think that there’s going to be some trouble in their eyes as Trump gets a balance again on these things. President Trump has got going to have his hands full with $2 trillion of additional spending that the Biden-Harris administration put in. He’s got to recover if he’s going to recover. President Trump recovering, it’s going to impact the EU and the China relations, the Russia relations. The second key issue affecting the EU. China is increasing long, close political economic ties with Russia, whose war in Ukraine is entering its fourth year in February. I believe that the war will have an ending in 2025. However, as George McMillan and I have been talking, I’ve got five podcast lined up that I’ve recorded with him. They’re coming out and he’s basically said if President Putin does nothing, he’s won. The EU and NATO are having some serious problems and they could fail. So when you take a look at how China and the EU buckle up, they’re not the only ones that are having some serious issues going on. And it’s an excellent article. [00:05:02][130.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:03] U.S. Sanctions Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the ENP. B A, which is the Zephyr N nuclear reactor. I butchered that name. The largest such facility, a nuke in it has one, two, three, four, five, six reactor. Today’s expansion of mandatory sanctions will reduce Russia’s access to revenue and goods. Well, this reactor has been idle for four dormant since mid 2023, since due to the threat of a Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks. Sanctions against GNP were not imposed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but under an executive order alleging Russia has engaged in harmful formal activities such as efforts to undermine contact in free and democratic elections in democratic institutions in the West. Hogwash. I just think that this is pretty funny. I think it’s actually kind of stupid. And this is going to be a bargaining chip for President Trump and President Putin. Either way, the Ukrainians really need this power plant back online. They won’t be able to man it without the Russian help. Why don’t you negotiate that into the peace deal? I think that that would be a very smart thing to do. [00:06:22][79.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:23] Let’s go to the next story. EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December of 2026. If you take a look at the U.S., energy use has been fairly flat from 2005 all the way to 2021. And then we’ve slightly started increasing our energy demand, but we’ve started really increasing our engine energy demand in 2024 and is projected to keep going on with increasing use through AI and data centers. And when you take a look at that, this is the first time that we’ve had serious electrical demand growth and we’re trying to make sure you will not be able to meet it. With projects coming online for solar and wind, it will not meet grid stability demand. If you try to increase solar supplies, most of the increase in generation are for gas. We expect the electrical power sector to add 26GW of new solar capacity in 2025 and 22GW in 2026. We expect these capacity additions to increase U.S. solar generation by 34% in 2025 and 17 and 26. This does not make sense to me. You can think that solar adding solar in there is going to solve the problem in the grid stability. This just does not make sense. And when you take a look at natural gas, that does make a significant difference. Annual gas and trade 22 to 26 has had a steady increase. [00:08:09][106.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:10] And that goes along with this next story. Henry Hub EIA raises Henry Hub price forecast for 2025. That’s a $6 or 6.4% higher than the 290 5 a.m. me to you and December of 2024 the EIA said New outlook The Henry Hub spot prices generally rises over the next two years. We expect the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub to average $3.10 per million British thermal units and maybe BTU in of $4 in 2026, up from a historical average around $2.20. This is because of data centers and the increase in LNG. We ran a story yesterday saying that the boon for the growth for LNG is expected to double. It is a that’s a lot of natural gas that’s going to be exported out. It’s going to be pretty interesting. So buckle up. And we need all the natural gas. We’re not going to make any of our climate goals without natural gas. We’re not going to do it with nuclear because of the regulatory process. And boy, Lee Zeldin for your Listeners podcast is a new if you come in as the new head of the EPA, you got your thing. You got to do a lot of work to get this thing rolling. [00:09:36][85.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:36] Oil rises as crude inventories continue to drop. Crude oil prices moved higher today after the US and IEA. EIA reported an inventory drop of 2 million barrels for the second week in the year. The change estimated by the EIA compared to a modest draw of around 1 million barrels for the previous week, also saw sizable builds in fuel in gasoline for the week of January 10th. The EIA estimated an inventory build of five. Point 9 million in gasoline with production of 9.3 million barrels daily. This compared to a build of as much as 6.3 million barrels the previous week. I’ll tell you, it’s kind of interesting when you sit back and at the time I’m reading this oil, Brant is at about 80, 55, up $3 today. And that gas is at $4.13. So it’s going to be an interesting ride as we get rolling through here. [00:10:39][62.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:39] So with that like subscribe ago to the energy news beat Substack, we’re announcing some new things. And if you are an energy expert and want to get to the front of the line, go and become a sponsor on the energy news. Beat the energy news, beat that substack.com and it will get you on the podcast and help share the world about your specific company. And also as we get through this, there is go to energy news, beat a go to the top menu and take a look up there you’ll see a menu bar is your portfolio. Okay? And I like our investment that we have done and it is about 32% a year on year. And that’s not including the 98% tax deduction that we got with it. So I like a mailbox money investment. So with that like subscribe, share, reenlist, your pets and everything else, you have an absolutely wonderful day. [00:10:39][0.0][624.3]
– Get in Contact With The Show –
The post EU-China Tensions appeared first on Energy News Beat.
“}]]