Daily Energy Standup Episode #210 – California’s Climate Lawsuit Against Oil Giants and Global Energy Market Trends

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California sues oil giants alleging ‘climate risks deception’: Report

US in ‘regular contact’ with Saudi Arabia over global oil supplies

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on. Everybody, welcome into another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Stand up here on this gorgeous September 18th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas, joined by the executive producer of the show, the purveyor of the show and the director and publisher of the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com Stuart Turley, my man. How we doing today? [00:00:38][22.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:38] It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood. I’m here in my office in West Texas. And Michael, I stopped on the way in and I did some interviews with some wind turbines on the way in and they were doing nothing. They weren’t working, so I’ll be publishing those later. [00:00:52][13.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:52] They’re on strike demanding higher pay. So, no, that’s awesome. We’re still holding it down in West Texas. Hopefully it’s not too hot there. But despite the travels, we have an absolute banger of a show lined up. We’re going to start with our favorite state, California. They’re suing oil giants alleging, quote, climate risk deception, according to a new report says, who’s going to dive into what’s going on with news? And we’re going to stay in that state and talk about what’s happening in their legislature. They go ahead and approve a plan to allow California to buy more power. But wait, it’s paid for with more surcharges to the consumers. So, as always, you guys take it in the drive through. We’ll chop wood, fly on over to Saudi Arabia, U.S. in, quote, regular contact with Saudi Arabia over global oil supplies seem to be doing really well in those talks. So really glad we’ve got we’ve got the U.S. government on it. I feel rest assured Biden’s on it, guys. But then we’re going to do a trio of U.S. onshore or offshore wind as we’re going to follow up really on the on the news of your state. Financial troubles canceling a bunch of projects. US offshore wind slammed by runaway costs, rendering the inflation reduction acts useless. Then next an opinion piece. This one was in Bloomberg. What do Orsted’s financial problems mean for Rhode Island’s stake in offshore wind? And then finally, states begged Biden to bolster offshore wind while projects flounder. So wrap it up with the trio of of our favorite off us offshore wind save the whales not in my backyard personally then still will kick it over to me. I’ll cover quickly what’s going on with oil and gas prices. We finished above 90 for the week 9077. Things look to also gap up today. So are as the markets open later this afternoon. So we will cover exactly where we think oil prices are going. Rig counts had an interesting surprise print. We’ll go ahead and cover what that is. I can quickly tout what I think’s an early candidate for your guy of the week. I’m talking about high peak. They’ve got some some new debt. And we’ll cover what that looks like before we do all that. Guys, remember all the analysis and stories you are about to hear are brought to you by the world’s greatest website, www.energynewsbeat.com Stu in the team does a great job of curating that website to make sure it stays up to speed on all things energy, energy news, energy finance, you know, offshore wind, onshore wind. We’re going to talk a lot about that today. But what’s really the macro problems going along in the energy business? It’s the best place for all of that. You can follow the show, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Subscribe to us on YouTube at Energy News Beat. That’s a great way to support the show and we appreciate everybody who’s watching us there. You can check us out. Dashboard.EnergyNewsBeat.com. It’s our attempt at data news combo, so go ahead and check that out. Give us some feedback. You can do that via the link below in the description where also all of the articles and timestamps are, but you can also fill out a little form, get in contact, ask us questions, you can email the show or to do it that way. [email protected] We appreciate everybody tuning in. We’ve got a big show ahead. We’ve got a big week lined up too, so let’s go ahead and kick us off. Where do you want to begin? [00:03:53][181.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:54] Hey, let’s start in my favorite third world country, California. California sues oil giants alleging climate risks deception. This is about as dumb as it gets. Let me come on down here. And the deception is just horrible. Rob Bonta, the California attorney, Michael, filed this and he filed it against We’re talking a who’s who of the oil companies targeted Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, Conoco Phillips and Chevron. And it’s because of the deceptions that our oil and gas are hiding, the fact of how bad fossil fuels are. Let’s get a quote from him. Oil and gas company executives have known for decades that reliance on fossil fuels would cause these catastrophic results, but they suppressed that information from the public and policymakers by actively pushing out the disinformation on the topic. Read the 135 page complaint list. It caused a delay to global warming response. Michael, I’m going to call who are this. This is not only hoo ha. I would swear if this wasn’t a family show, this is about. Kind of like an O.U. Graduate, if you would. Oh. Have you seen that meme where that little girl is crying or. It’s actually a short little girl’s crying, and she goes, Dad called me a Democrat. [00:05:28][94.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:29] Okay, I’ve seen that. That’s funny. Okay. Well, what I think is interesting is this. So this lawsuit is, you know, as Stu mentions, alleging that they’ve, quote, downplayed the risk posed by fossil fuels. Who are those companies target? Exxon, Shell, BP, Conoco Phillips, Chevron. What I find interesting is that BP, for all of the green push that they’ve done and we talked about it ad nauseum last week with the news of their CEO stepping down due to some UN pronounced relationships. But Right. What was the goal when he took over in 2016? They shift they were going to become beyond petroleum. They were going to move and really push that renewables word. And guess what? For all that hard work, for all that investment, guess what? When it comes to being looped into what really is just a vanity lawsuit like this is just to get headlines. This is just for the press. They still get looped into it. Imagine being an investor relations at BP. You got to think, what more can we do with you outside of abandoning oil and gas altogether? There’s nothing you can do. So take note. If you’re an oil and gas company, you can do everything right. You can placate the ESG people. And guess what? When it comes down, they’re still going to loop you in with everybody else because it’s not a serious discussion. That’s what I took out of this. [00:06:38][68.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:38] Oh, absolutely. And what we’re seeing is like the climate scientist that just admitted that he fraudulently did everything, you know, to get his report. So there’s fraud on both parts. I disagree with this 100% just for the same. [00:06:54][16.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:55] Shocker, too. And I disagree with this one. I know everyone was was on hands and knees wondering where do they come down on this climate lawsuit. [00:07:03][8.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:03] Yeah, I’ll tell you what, I need to get my defibrillator out because, you know, I’m shocking myself here. [00:07:09][5.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:09] All right. Let’s stay in California. [00:07:10][0.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:11] Let’s. [00:07:11][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:11] Oh, this one did. So this stupid class. [00:07:13][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:13] Oh, this one takes the cake. You know, Legislature approves plan allowing California to buy power paid with more surge charges to consumers. Michael, just as a tip on what this is, Governor Newsom, the pretty boy of politics, he is setting it up for permission to buy massive amounts of electricity to avoid blackouts. And Michael is going to be from neighboring states. Are you ready by natural gas and coal? I mean, we’re we’re talking things that they have been trying to avoid. But because they have gone, as John would say, greener, they have just totally gone into the solar and wind, highest energy cost in the U.S. Five companies, roughly, Michael, they paid $750 million to lease areas off the California coast. Here’s what the problem is. Those projects could generate enough electricity for 3.5 million homes. They can’t get them connected. Oops. [00:08:23][70.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:24] Fired $750 million just to lease land. I mean. Right. And you think oil and gas leasing is expensive when you hear words like 10,000 an acre, 20,000 acre and things go crazy, I want to know what the per acre cost of that is, that this could go down $750 million just to lease land. Is this not just a government scheme to grab money like, oh, we’re just going to auction off all this leases that we know no one’s going to actually build on because it’s once they actually do the math, right. Who who’s underwriting these deals. I’d love to see that financial model. [00:09:01][36.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:01] We’re going to talk about that and some of the next stories here. This one kind of gets me all worked up. When you sit back and say California has moved quickly to end its reliance on fossil fuels. In recent years, state regulatory have banned the sale of most new gas powered cars in 2035. But the states struggle. They’re still using 70% of the oil drilled in their rainforest, drilled by China. They’re destroying the rainforest and they are. Energy hypocrisy is alive and well. All right. [00:09:39][38.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:39] Yeah, it’s I mean, what do you expect from California? [00:09:42][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:43] Oh, yeah, I’ll tell you, I like my haircut better. Newsom’s It’s faster in the shower. For our podcast listeners, I got a flesh colored hair line. [00:09:52][9.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:54] All right, let’s go to the next one. [00:09:55][1.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:55] The U.S. in regular contact with Saudi Arabia over global oil. Surprised Michael Last week or in the last few weeks, M.D.s met with Joe Biden for about 15 seconds. Let’s hold a moment of silence for this meeting. Okay. Was actually really very, very short. M.D.s would not shake hands with. I’m kidding. There was the fist bump that lived in infamy. Biden says he talked about all these kind of things and everything else. And it was really about one minute. And there’s no way, because I’ve got a quote from it right here. Biden told M.D.s, who got booed. Booker got got the rule. Okay. That being said, United States is in regular contact at senior levels with Saudi Arabia about ensuring stable and affordable supply of energy to global markets. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan says. Michael, I want to ask you your opinion. Do you think MDC and the king actually want to listen to anything Joe Biden says? [00:11:06][70.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:06] No, absolutely not. Even if they could have regular contact with senior levels about it. I mean, then they why do they keep cutting? I mean, there’s a reason they’re probably doing all of this again. This is this is just an attempt to placate and say, no, no, no, no. We know what’s going on. We’re we’re we’re we’re in control. We’re in control. They’re not we know. Well, it’s clearly not working. Oil is over 90 bucks. That’s not really what they want. [00:11:30][23.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:30] Oh, no. And and it’s going to raise the price. There’s two other facets that were in other stories. And, you know, I like to weave other stories. In three weeks ago, it came out this Secretary Granholm, who if she was dating Fetterman, it’d be Senator Graham. Now, she had actually worked with the CCP in order to. She called them on how much to release a present. How much should I release out of the SPR? Because when you invade Taiwan, you want to make sure we can’t do anything. He goes, We’re going to sell everything. Okay, great. So she calls up Hunter and then she arranges for Hunter. She, you know, to be able to buy all of it. His company bought a good chunk of it out of there. Okay, so you can’t buy this kind of entertainment out of our energy thing. How that plays into this is that you have U.S. energy talking to the Saudis. And Secretary Granholm said she’s going to hit the SPR again shortly in order to make sure she can keep the gas prices down. There’s nothing in the SPR, Michael. [00:12:40][70.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:41] You heard it here. Second, folks. [00:12:42][0.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:42] Oh, absolutely. [00:12:43][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:45] We couldn’t go an entire show without mentioning Hunter Biden. So props to you for being able to slip that in. We got to go over to this debacle from from your stead. Talk to me. Let’s go to the next one here. [00:12:57][12.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:57] Okay. Let’s go to our other part of the third World countries, the the East Coast. And you know what, Michael, real quick, we got to love our listeners. I want to give a shout out to all of our listeners, all the feedback. California, New York are our biggest markets in the United States. Russia is listening to us like you wouldn’t believe. I’m sorry. I know my Putin imitation zero. Where they’re going. Hey, hey, hey. All right, I got to get back to this. Okay. The title is What Do Orsted’s Financial Problems Mean for Rhode Island? Stake in Offshore. Michael, we have three articles that are kind of all related. And, you know, I like to weave the stories, but let me back up a little bit and talked about Orsted having some problems and they were backing out and I believe they were the only ones that bid on some offshore wind leases. And now they’re trying to shut down one of their projects because it is fiscally unsustainable. So last we’ve already talked about that and I’m just kind of teeing up because this is a little bit different and it’s more in the finance on this. Let me give you a Jeff Cheek, chief executive Mads Nipper said on August 30th with the call with the investors, quote, As we mature toward the final investment decision, if the walk away scenario is the economic rationale decision for us, then this remains a real scenario for us as an alternative to actually taking the final investment decision. While orsted prices or shares fell 25% in the wake of the news. Now a top credit agency, Michael, is hammering them to a negative on the buy. Wow. So now let’s get into some of that. Moody’s affirmed Orsted bond and credit ratings, but it warned of downward pressure. Let’s see here. Stephanie or Orsted is by the three rating agencies, moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch all. Three rating agencies have confirmed our current rating. We note that Moody’s continues to have confidence in our commitment to our ratings, and this is hardly the first. I love the article. Keep on going. Anyway, the National Grid would turn and earn 4.6 million energy renewable credits. So, you know, and I view and I have always said about energy credits, they’re actually allowing people that are not helping the environment scam the system anyway. So what do you think? [00:15:50][172.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:51] Well, I mean, it’s fairly clear here that there’s been massive bets on us wind that are probably not going to pan out. We’re just talking about $750 million for leases. Guys. It’s got nothing to do with building the infrastructure, deploying it, all of the stuff that needs to happen. This is another example on saying and bad underwriting they underwrote this deal are what, 77 per megawatt hour. Now it’s got to be 114, according to Bloomberg. I mean, and Bloomberg’s going to be a little bit on the side of we want this to work out. So they’re incentivized to do, you know, to report on the things that bad. So it’s just fascinating that you can get the how much groupthink and how much the sentiment of just everybody can drive people to do things that you look back on and we’re looking at right now, it’s like who who underwrote who made this decision? But we’re here now. I don’t expect Orsted to necessarily, you know, of course, they got to come out with this quote from their their North American chief. Quote, We’re still very optimistic with the support with the support of the Inflation Reduction Act. I mean, that’s a quote from their North American head. Hopeful. Hopeful. It’s just simply Now. [00:17:02][71.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:03] Let’s also add a caveat. My interview with Betsy McCoy, who was the former lieutenant governor of New York, wrote an article in The New York Post. And this this podcast was a hoot. She is a great lady and she’s a constitutional attorney. And she said in there in the article that Governor Hochul basically said, we’re going to have a 10% hike and possibly another 20% in the next two years for New York state electricity to the consumers. Consumers get it in the drive thru again and they’re going to double by 2050 to pay for 100% renewable. So, you know, it’s kind of like, holy smokes, let me go to the next one and I’m only going to spend just a half a second on each one of these. This a supporting article. Offshore wind slammed by runaway cost, rendering the Inflation Reduction Act useless. The law. My more than ten gigawatts of offshore wind off the East Coast ten nuclear reactors are at serious risk of higher costs. This was Josh Price. Quote. It is pretty evident that the inflationary dictionary pressures have blunted the impact of the IRA. It wasn’t a silver bullet. And, you know, you sit back and kind of go, whoa, that article goes with Orsted and then you have the other states. This one is I’m just going to mention it. The states begged Biden to bolster the offshore while projects flounder. Six U.S. governors have implored President Biden to boost support for fledgling offshore industry. Fledgling My Carcass. Amid growing concerns that surging cost will imperil multi-billion dollar project plan for their coastal Atlantic waters. All three of those go together. Idle, all weave together. Wow. [00:19:07][123.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:07] Yeah, all three paint a great picture for offshore wind. [00:19:10][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:11] And the consumers, because even if these projects falter, the power companies are going to pass If you do leases and you pay the lease. Michael how does the lease work in an oil environment? [00:19:25][14.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:26] Well, you mean you you pay them. I mean, lease just works. Is it just an expense on top of the the project itself? So if you’re doing project level economics, you need to include the cost it took to acquire that acreage. You know, most people like to do well economics or let’s just do a wind turbine economic look well. Okay, well, okay, so you’ve got cost of materials, you’ve got maybe some labor to install it, you’ve got ongoing fixed costs and variable costs, but there’s a revenue stream that we know that’s coming from this electricity. But if you have to then take into account the project level, which is well, I mean you had to do, you had to somehow purchase the ability that to use this area because you don’t own the, the, the, you know the sea or you don’t own whatever whoever you’re putting it on, whether it’s a farmer’s land. And most people, you know, depending on, you know, when you’re evaluating or underwriting a. Deal or when you’re looking at investing in a deal, if you’re not under it, if you don’t know how they’re underwriting the deal, that puts you at a disadvantage. And it’s clear in some of these, they just were like, well, we’ll spend whatever we want on the leases and we’ll worry about the the project. Economics aren’t going to include the leases if they did fire them all because it’s a crime and a half. What’s happened here? [00:20:35][68.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:35] Fire them all. You almost sound like the Queen of hearts. Give em. [00:20:38][2.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:38] All. I would. [00:20:39][1.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:40] Yep. Yeah, but you wouldn’t save the whales. [00:20:41][1.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:42] Well, no. I mean, if their goal was to eviscerate all of the whales, if that was the underlying current to all of this, I’d actually be on board with it. But it’s not. It’s a hassle. [00:20:51][9.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:52] It is a hassle. Well, I’m. I’m done. [00:20:54][1.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:54] Well, then we’ll quickly cover what’s going on in the oil and gas markets, guys, because it was a great week. You know, crude oil prices finished above $90 a barrel for the first time since November of 2022, stood in about $90.77 to be to be on the nose looks to gap up to over $91. So an impressive week for oil prices, again backed by the fact that Saudi Arabia and Russia and Opec+ in general have agreed to extend those oil cuts. But we’re also seeing is that just much more increased demand coming out of countries like India, China’s you know, we know that economic news has it been great? The problem is they continue to buy oil in an aggressive rate. We know that the EIA and the IEA are predicting record oil both demand and supply as we finish out the year here. But demand should outstrip supply slowing. That’s why you’re seeing a blip here in oil prices. It’s been funny. The sentiment I think the last three weeks is oil rig counts going down, rig count is going down. There’s this divergence between what’s, you know, oh, my goodness, where oil prices are going up, rig counts are falling. It’s only going to be a it’s only going to continue to, you know, have this cycle of rig counts going down because of investors wanting money and not seen and not wanting increasing production. Well, we saw nine rigs turnaround week over week, which is one of the larger increases and the largest increase we’ve seen all year due, which again goes to the fact that people in this industry are extremely flexible. And there are I mean, and I think this is a what this first week shows is a reversal much I think people are saying, okay, at $90 oil, I can now there are now some projects I can go pick up. It’s not that pioneer and the big boys, you know, Exxon and the big players out in the Midland Basin, they’ve always had the rigs. It’s the smaller shops. It’s the people who are teetering on, do I go drill this project? Because I really I don’t just need 30% IRR because I’m I because I drill one at a time and I pick and choose my spots. I need 60, I need 80% just because of my risk tolerance. And and the way it all works, you know, the fact that my cash flow is super, you know, I’m not cash rich, so I can’t necessarily just sit on a cash outlay waiting for, you know, in inlay. I need to, you know, things need to get paid back on a on a more decent schedule. This is where at $90 you’re going to see that you see those style companies begin to pick up rigs. And I’m sure that’s what you’re seeing right now, some plans being executed that they’ve sort of been on the shelf and just waiting for the right time. That’s what you’re going to see. I guarantee you will probably see an increase week over week. And, you know, we the currently we sit at 641. You know, if things continue this way, we’re going to see 700 buy no time. And we could see remember last year we were at over 150 about once or excuse me, over 750, but somewhere between 760 and 770. That could be an interesting target as we continue to write up The real question, though, Stuart, where do you see oil prices going from here? Theme seem to be bullish in three months. Where do you see are we are we actually going to see 120 or is this a is this a blip on the radar or of what an otherwise should be a 70 $75 market? [00:23:58][183.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:23:58] I’m extremely bullish. In fact, I’ve got my Texas Longhorns that I have. I’m going to be putting on my truck, you know, and I get you said to put on your truck so we can be Texans with Longhorns. I’m extremely bullish, Michael. I cannot even throw a number out there because if the Biden administration acts as MDC to increase production, he’s going to lower production just to flip his nose at him. So is demand going to go down? Is demand going to go up? There are so many geopolitical things going on in my bullish heck, yeah. Do I know what a price is? I think we’re going to go over 100. [00:24:37][38.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:24:37] Oh, you think? You think it’s I mean, I definitely going over 100. We’ll go ahead and talk to me about where you see it going. Where do you think the highest is. [00:24:45][8.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:24:46] If you’re going to hold me to 110? [00:24:47][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:24:48] Okay. So you think 110 is going to do it or you were under. I think I think I mean, there’s some crazy numbers being thrown around out there, depending on what happens in them. I mean, anything can trigger a huge spike upward. I think we’re going to see above 100. I would probably if you’re saying 110 is the break even, I’ll take the under. But I do think we’re going to see above 100. So I’d say 105 is going to be my target. [00:25:09][21.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:09] Oh, that’s cheesy. You’re almost like the Price is Right kind of getting in there. And right under somebody else. But I think you’re right in in this. The sense is Saudi Arabia, the leadership is smart enough to realize if they get too high a price of oil, the world economy takes a gigantic hit. Do you want the world to take any more of a hit that it’s already going to have? No, they’re they’re too smart for that. [00:25:33][23.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:25:34] Yeah, well, you know, they’re they’re geniuses, too. What should people be scared about coming up this week? Oh, buckle up. [00:25:39][5.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:40] Do you want me to really give my. [00:25:42][2.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:25:43] No, I don’t. I want you to lie and say everything’s going to be okay, Michael. [00:25:46][3.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:47] I’ll tell you what. I just want to give a shout out to all of our fans. We love our fans, Michael. We are on a we’ve been on this run rate for a while for our downloads, about 160,000 downloads a month for our little girl. I mean, that’s a lot of downloads, man. You know, and amongst other podcasters that are out there, you know, they’re there a lot less. But we’re doing great, you know? [00:26:14][26.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:26:14] Interesting. Interesting. Good, good, good, good to just always, always just compare yourself with what’s going on out there in the marketplace. [00:26:20][6.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:26:21] I love it. I love all of our competitors. And they’re not really competitors. They’re cooptation. [00:26:24][3.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:26:26] Yeah. I mean, if you’re fighting for a number to tell you that much, fighting for number two, Stu, we’re fighting for you want to get off here? I also said, you guys, appreciate you checking this out. Energy news podcast. I’m going to be off tomorrow. Stu’s going to rock his solo show. We’ll be back full force on Wednesday, though. Thanks for checking us out. We will see you guys. And still we’ll see you guys tomorrow. [00:26:26][0.0][1542.6]

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