Western nations warned the shipping industry at the weekend of increased risks to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.
“As of now, the timeline remains at 72 hours” from Saturday, maritime security firm Ambrey told Energy Intelligence. No incidents have been reported yet, it added.
Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments pass through this notorious maritime choke point, including crude exports from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
On Aug. 12 UK Maritime Trade Operations issued a notice warning of “an increased threat within the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz” and advising vessels to exercise caution.
Separately, an EU-led mission, European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz, issued a warning the same day about the possibility of an attack on a merchant vessel in the strait in the next 12 to 72 hours.
The US-backed International Maritime Security Construct also advised vessels “to transit as far away from Iranian territorial waters as possible,” the Associated Press quoted a spokesman for the US Navy’s Bahrain-based 5th Fleet as saying.
The warnings follow a series of events in which Iran seized or harassed commercial ships in recent months.
Progress in US-Iran Talks
Although no incidents were reported after Saturday’s warnings, Ambrey assessed that the increased threat persisted for the time being.
“The progress over the South Korean negotiations indicates to Iran that seizing merchant vessels and US citizens delivers results,” the firm told Energy Intelligence.
Under talks brokered by Oman, Iran recently moved four US citizens out of Tehran’s notorious Evin prison and into house arrest. A fifth US citizen is also under house arrest.
As a condition for the full release of all five US citizens, Iran is seeking access to $6 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korean banks that the US has sanctioned. Use of the funds would be restricted to purchases of goods for humanitarian purposes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Monday that the assets were initially being transferred to a European bank in phases, Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Ambrey also noted that Japan owes Iran $3 billion, and that Iran’s foreign minister met with Japanese officials last week.
Oil Market Unfazed
The oil market remained largely unfazed by the prospect of increased risks for tankers passing through the Strait, with Brent futures trading slightly lower on Monday but remaining close to recent highs in the mid-$80s per barrel.
The warnings to shipping in the strait come after a contingent of more than 3,000 US Marines and Navy personnel arrived in the Mideast Gulf on Aug. 6, as part of a wider deployment of additional fighter jets and warships to the region.
Last month, Iran attempted to seize two oil tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, but backed off after the US Navy dispatched a destroyer to the area of the attack.
Between April and May, Iran seized three tankers in the region — including a Chevron-chartered Suezmax vessel taking crude to the US Gulf Coast from the Neutral Zone shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The incidents appeared to be a tit-for-tat response to the US seizure of an Iranian oil cargo off Malaysia.
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